Chiefs vs. Raiders | NFL Week 18 Breakdown & Best Bets: Sin City Struggles
Written by: Varun Sharma
Published: Sat Jan 03, 2026, 2:45 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
nfl
The Raiders look to solidify their hold on the #1 overall pick in next year's draft with a loss this week to their division rival, the Kansas City Chiefs. Both teams are set to miss the playoffs and both teams are playing with a severe lack of motivation. That being said, let's break it all down.
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Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location: Allegiant Stadium; Las Vegas, Nevada
- Date: Sunday, January 4th, 2026
- Kickoff: 4:25 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Kansas City Chiefs: Chris Oladookun (2024 – N/A)
- Las Vegas Raiders: Kenny Pickett (1-0; 2024 – 143.0 YPG | 1 TD | 0 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Tankathon
The Raiders have been terrible this year and the best thing that can come out of this season is the #1 overall pick in next year's NFL Draft. The team's desperate for a real QB and despite all the talent they've acquired over the last two years, the QB spot continues to be a glaring hole on this offense.
Reports are beginning to surface that the Raiders could part way with Head Coach Pete Carroll after just one year and it's hard to blame the team. They've won just two games, they've got the worst offensive line in the NFL, they're bottom two in turnovers and just look lost on offense. Offensive Co-ordinator Chip Kelly was let go midseason and reports began to come out he was calling plays they never installed in the offense.
The Raiders were dead last in points, first downs, rush yards, and sacks given up. The team's 30th in yards per play, 27th in pass yards and 25th in redzone efficiency. This week they're without Maxx Crosby, Brock Bowers and it's clear the team's looking to lose. Las Vegas enters this week as a 5.5-point dog to a Chiefs team being led by their third string QB; Chris Oladakun.
WHO?!
The Chiefs are set to miss the playoffs for the first time in the Patrick Mahomes era. Mahomes could also miss multiple weeks at the start of next year and their backup Gardener Minshew's in a similar situation.
Enter, Chris Oladakun. The kid's in his third year in the NFL and just made his first career start last week. He threw the ball 22 times, completed 59% of his passes for 66 yards and 1 touchdown. Immediately facing off with the Denver Broncos in your first ever NFL start is tough. Chris took care of the ball, threw a touchdown and the Chiefs would only lose by a touchdown.
The Chiefs clunky offense lead to the Broncos seeing almost double the time of possession but this week they face a Raiders offense that's been really bad. Las Vegas also ranks 25th in points allowed, 26th in sacks, 28th in QB hits and bottom 10 in pressure rate. Now the Raiders are without their best defensive lineman and some extra time in the pocket might really help Oladakun play well.
Sunday's Best Bets
Michael Mayer o38.5 Receiving Yards (-115) | Lucky Rebel
The Raiders have nothing to play for but the players on the field will always come out to play. Last week in their loss to the Giants, Michael Mayer saw 10 targets, catching 9 for 89 yards and an average of 9.9 yards per catch. He lead the team in target share and was seeing a 42.1% first read target share last week.
The offense is obviously being called with Mayer in mind and he's a big part of what Pete Carroll's trying to do with this offense. Brock Bowers is the team's best receiver and it's no surprise to see Mayer's volume see such a drastic increase with Bowers sidelined. Mayer's played three games this year without Bowers, he's recorded 5+ catches in two of the three and cleared this line in both games. The one miss came when Mayer left early due to injury.
Mayer's been great for the Raiders but when you play behind one of the best TEs in the NFL, it's easy to be overshadowed.
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