Bills vs. Broncos | 2025 NFL Divisional Round: Mayhem at Mile High
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Update: Sat Jan 17, 2026, 4:02 pm ET
Read Time: 7 minutes
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The Buffalo Bills are coming off their first road playoff win in the Josh Allen era and looking for the second. The Broncos come into this one ready to play their first home playoff game under Sean Payton on the sideline and Bo Nix under center. Let's jump right into one.
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Game Information
Matchup Information
- Location: Empower Field; Denver, Colorado
- Date: Saturday, January 17th, 2026
- Kickoff: 3:00 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Buffalo Bills: Josh Allen (13-4; 2024 – 219.5 YPG | 28 TD | 6 INT)
- Denver Broncos: Bo Nix (10-7; 2024 – 222.1 YPG | 29 TD | 12 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
Mayhem in Mile High
The Broncos come into this game as the #1 seed, rested and fresh off a bye week. Denver won 14 games this year and they did it on the back of their defense. The Broncos rank 3rd in points allowed, 1st in opponent redzone efficiency, 2nd in rush yards allowed and 1st in opponent yards per play.
The team's allowing just 18.3 points per game and the defense is averaging 4.0 sacks per game. They finished with 68 sacks on the year, had 9 different players finish with more than 3 sacks and finished top-5 in pressure rate. The defense is only magnified by this shut down secondary, lead by the reigning Defensive Player of the Year; Pat Surtain II.
Denver ranks 7th in pass yards allowed this year and they've done a great job at shutting down opposing air attacks. Offensively the team just hasn't been on the same level. They rank 14th in points scored, 16th in rush yards, 14th in yards per play and 11th in pass yards. The offensive line is top-5 in the league and they've done a great job of keeping Box Nix upright and on two legs.
That's why his stats this year are a little underwhelming, not bad, just underwhelming. Nix finished the regular season with a 63.4% completion rate, averaging 231.2 pass yards per game, 25 touchdowns passes and 11 interceptions. He rushed for 5 additional touchdowns and finished the year with a passer rating of 87.8.
The Bills of Buffalo
The Bills come into this game as the #6 seed and playing in their second straight road game. Josh Allen and Sean McDermott just recorded their first playoff road win and now they're looking for the next one. The team's offense has been great this year, ranking 4th in points, 3rd in redzone efficiency, 1st in rush yards and 3rd in yards per play.
James Cook finished the year as the league's top rusher, rushing for 1,621 rush yards, 5.3 yards per carry, a 5.2% explosive run rate and 59.6% run success rate. Josh Allen's had another great year and despite a lack of receivers, has him team once again playing in the Divisional Round.
Allen's averaging 215.9 pass yards per game, 34.1 rush yards per game, he's got 39 total touchdowns and he's thrown 10 interceptions. He finished the year with a 69.3% completion rate and passer rating of 102.2.
The issues in Buffalo start on the defensive side. The team ranks 12th in points allowed but they've had almost no success stopping the run. The defense ranks 28th in rush yards allowed, 31st in opponent yards per carry and 26th in rush yards allowed to RBs.
This same Bills team was just torched in the Wild Card game, giving up 359 total yards of offense and more specifically 154 yards on the ground. Travis Etienne averaged 6.7 yards per carry, while Bhayshul Tuten finished the day with 51 yards on just 4 carries (12.8 YPC). Denver's run game has taken a hit with J.K. Dobbins out. Rookie RJ Harvey is averaging just 46.6 rush yards per game in Dobbins' absence and just 3.4 yards per carry.
It could be problematic for the Broncos if they're unable to run the ball on this Bills defense.
Trends/Insights
Buffalo
The Bills have gone 1-4 on the road with Josh Allen under Center and Sean McDermott on the sidelines. The team's giving up 31.6 points per game in these five games and have allowed 30+ points in 3 of the 5 games. Allen's averaging 278 pass yards per game, completing 64.5% of his passes with 11 total touchdowns and he's thrown just 1 interception.
Allen's performed better against top defensive squads and played well on short weeks.
- When facing teams that allowed less than 20 points per game (PPG), Allen's gone 30-10 straight up (SU) and an astounding 29-10-1 against the spread (ATS). Allen played 16 of these games on the road, winning 12 of the 16.
- Josh Allen's done fairly well on short weeks in his career, especially following a win. Directly off a win, Allen's 12-5 SU off a short week and that's exactly the situation he's in this week.
Denver
Sean Payton thrives at home in the postseason and he's been almost untouchable when he's got the extended rest/prep time.
- Sean Payton's teams are 7-3 SU at home in the playoffs.
- Sean Payton's a perfect 4-0 SU with the extra week of prep (bye week).
Saturday's Best Bets
Ty Johnson o1.5 Receptions (-120) | Lucky Rebel
This one's a little strange, maybe. With all the injuries in this Bills receiving room, it's hard to ignore how important Ty Johnson becomes to this offense. He's cleared this line in 9 of his L10 games, but he's averaging just 2.6 targets per game in that time frame. The Broncos rank 1st in receptions allowed to opposing RBs and they've done a great job in coverage across the board.
Regardless, this pass rush is formidable and the Bills will need to get creative with their lack of pass catchers. Johnson's proven big at very opportune times this year and it's why I'm expecting him to have a significant impact here in the Divisional Round.
It's going to be a sweat, but that's exactly why I love it.
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