NFC Divisional Round, Packers vs Niners, Best Bets: January 20th, 2024
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Sat Jan 20, 2024, 10:37 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
nfl
The NFC Divisional Round is here for the NFL Playoffs, and we're going ton Santa Clara where the San Francisco Niners are taking on the Green Bay Packers.
Jordan Love and the Packers upset the Cowboys in Jerry's World last Sunday, and now they head West to take on the big bad #1 Seed in the NFC, the Niners.
Now, Brock Purdy looked incredibly most of the year and has the playoff experience from last year where he looked phenomenal until he got injured.
They are back again to redeem themselves, but they need to beat the newest QB in Green Bay.
Can Purdy lead his Niners to victory at home? Or will Love play spoiler on the road again?
Packers vs Niners Game Information
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Levi's Stadium (Santa Clara, CA)
- Date: Saturday, January 20th, 2024
- Kick Off: 8:15pm Eastern
- Broadcast: FOX
Betting Odds
Odds courtesy of Bovada. Get yourself a deposit bonus and the best lines in the market here!
Spread
- Packers +9.5 (-115)
- Niners -9.5 (-105)
Moneyline
- Packers +330
- Niners -440
Total
- Over 50.5 (-105)
- Under 50.5 (-115)
Will Jordan Love Continue to Work His Magic?
Love looked phenomenal against the 'Boys, but he did get plenty of help from the ground game. He only passed the ball 21 times as Aaron Jones ran all over Dallas, posting 21 carries for 118 yards and 3 TDs.
This game is going to be much different.
The Niners Defense ranks 3rd in Rushing Yards Allowed, 1st in Rush Attempts, and 6th in Rushing TDs. The secondary is much weaker than their front 7, so I expect Green Bay to really air it out on offense.
Purdy and all his weapons are hard to stop, so the Packers might need to score 27-30 points in order to win this game, which they are clearly capable of.
Green Bay scores 24 points on the season, but have scored 33 in their L3 games.
Although San Fran's defense is much better at home, allowing 3 less points than on the road, they have allowed over 21.3 points in their L3 contests.
With the way Green Bay's offense is rolling, I think they could put some points on the board.
However, I do not have a play on a side or the total, but I do have a player prop.
Free NFL Picks – Packers vs Niners Player Props
Jayden Reed Over 3.5 Receptions (-150) Bovada
As always, do your line shopping as this is available for much more manageable juice elsewhere, however, I think Reed catches at least 5 balls on Saturday.
He's cleared in 10/17 games this season, and 5/9 on the road. He's in 8 of his L10, including 8 straight prior to the game against the Cowboys.
Sunday in Dallas, he saw 3 targets but did not catch a ball because the Packers' run game was working well. This weekend, they will need to throw the ball, and I expect Reed to see plenty of looks.
He's cleared in 4 of his L5 on the road, posting games with 8 and 6 catches. In total, he has 23 receptions on 34 targets in his last 5 contests. His volume is there, and even with the return of Christian Watson, I like Reed to get his fair share of catches.
Reed has cleared this number in all but 3 games in which he had at least 5 targets. I think he sees at least 6-7 targets this weekend as the Packers will need all hands on deck to move the ball against the Niners.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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