Buccaneers vs Colts, Best Bets: Gardner Takes Down Baker
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Sun Nov 26, 2023, 11:05 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
nfl
The red hot Indianapolis Colts host the Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Lucas Oil Stadium this Sunday for some NFL action.
Gardner Minshew faces Baker Mayfield as the Colts try to extend their winning streak.
Indy has won two straight, putting them at 5-5 on the year, and definitely within range of sneaking into the playoffs. This will be a game they do not want to drop at home.
Indianapolis is also coming off a bye week, while the Bucs are coming back from a beating in San Francisco.
Do Baker and Tampa Bay stand a chance against Minshew and the Colts at home?
Let's find out.
Buccaneers vs Colts Game Information
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)
- Date: Sunday, November, 26th, 2023
- Kick Off: 1:00pm Eastern
- Broadcast: CBS
Betting Odds
Spread
- Bucs +2.5 (-105)
- Colts -2.5 (-115)
Moneyline
- Bucs +120
- Colts -140
Total
- Over 45 (-115)
- Under 45 (-105)
Free NFL Picks: Buccaneers vs Colts
Gardner Minshew is once again putting an average team in a playoff position. The guy steps up and makes plays, and no one can deny that. He's had plenty of help from the defense as well, as the Colts Defense has only allowed 19 total points in the last two games.
Tampa Bay's defense allows 6 more points on the road than at home this season, and Indianapolis is 9th in points per game in the NFL. The Colts score 24.2 PPG, bumping it up to 26.4 at Lucas Oil Stadium.
While it's worth noting that the Bucs score more on the road as well, I do trust the Colts to figure Baker out, and ultimately win this game.
Even thought we get the hook at -2.5, I'll pay the juiceman and take the ML.
The Pick: Colts ML (-135) BetOnline
Free NFL Player Props
Jonathan Taylor Anytime Touchdown (-112) Bovada
I'll take the bait once again, and bet on this man to score. Personally, I'm sort of doubling down because I also have him on a couple fantasy rosters, but regardless, I do not have much data to back this up other than his recent play.
The Buccaneers defense ranks 6th in rushing yards allowed, 6th in rushing attempts allowed, and 4th in rushing TDs against, giving up just 0.4 rushing TDs per game. The way to beat the Bucs is through the air, but I just have a gut feeling about Taylor.
He has scored the past two weeks, and have 3 TDs in his L4 games. He's scored in 3/6 games this year, but in 19/34 (56%) throughout his career. He's also scored in 10/17 (59%) home games in his career.
Two years ago against Tampa Bay, Taylor had 16 carries for 83 yards and a TD. That game was also at Lucas Oil Stadium.
I think he finds some green grass tomorrow and cashes for us.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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