Dolphins vs Bills, Best Bets: January 7th, 2024
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Sun Jan 07, 2024, 10:10 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
nfl
Sunday Night Football caps off the regular season this weekend, and we get an absolute thriller as the Miami Dolphins host the Buffalo Bills with a chance to win the AFC East at stake!
The Dolphins are 11-5 while the Bills are 10-6, however Buffalo beat Miami in their first matchup in Week 4 so they hold the tie breaker.
There is also a scenario where the Bills miss the playoffs, but the point is, they're in with a win at the #2 seed. The winner hosts a playoff game, the loser does not.
The stakes have never been higher.
Can Tua lead his Dolphins to their first division title since 2008? Or will Josh Allen win 5 straight games to win his 4th straight AFC East title?
Bills vs Dolphins Game Information
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Hard Rock Stadium (Miami, FL)
- Date: Sunday, January 7th, 2024
- Kick Off: 8:20pm Eastern
- Broadcast: NBC
Betting Odds
Spread
- Bills -3 (-105)
- Dolphins +3 (-115)
Moneyline
- Bills -160
- Dolphins +135
Total
- Over 48.5 (-110)
- Under 48.5 (-110)
Can Allen, Bills Stay on Top of the AFC East?
One could argue that this game means more to the Bills. Although both teams are fighting for the AFC East Title the Dolphins are in the playoffs no matter what. That isn't the case for Buffalo.
Yes, the Bills clinch the division and the playoffs with a win. But let's hypothetically say they lose and the Dolphins win the division.
If that happens, the 10-7 Bills would be eliminated with a Jaguars win and a Steelers win, assuming the Texans vs Colts doesn't end in a tie.
The points being, Buffalo needs this one and they've been red hot.
They've won four straight, scoring over 25 PPG and only allowing 17.5. They stomped Miami by 28 in Week 4, and quite frankly, I think they might do it again.
Miami is 7-1 at home, but they are coming off a horrible 56-19 loss against Baltimore. With a division title on the line, I expect them to come out hot, but they are missing some defensive pieces.
Bradley Chubb is out after tearing his ACL last week, and DB Xavien Howard is also listed as doubtful. There are plenty of Q's amongst the Dolphins' injury report, so who knows what to expect from them.
Although I lean with Buffalo, I cant find myself taking the spread or laying the juice on the ML, but instead I do have a player prop!
Free NFL Player Props – Bills vs Dolphins
Stefon Diggs Anytime TD (+140) Bovada
Diggs hasn't scored in 4 straight games. He has just 8 touchdowns this year, scoring in just 6/16 games this season.
But he had a career day against Miami earlier this year. Diggs caught 6 of his 7 targets for 120 yards and 3 Touchdowns in Week 4. He also does very well against the Dolphins historically.
In 8 games against the Dolphins, Diggs averages 5.8 receptions for 79 yards on 8.8 targets. He's scored in 5 of 8 games against the Fins in his career, and again, he had 3 last time out.
Now, Diggs has scored in 4/7 away games this season, and hasn't done so in two straight road games.
If the Bills want to win this game and the division, Josh Allen needs to find Stefon Diggs early and often. I see them connecting for another big game before getting ready for another electrifying playoffs.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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