Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons Preview & Best Bet (12/21): Can Cousins Continue Cruising?
Written by: Danny Burke
Published: Sun Dec 21, 2025, 11:22 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
nfl
Both the Arizona Cardinals and Atlanta Falcons have been eliminated from playoff contention, but their Week 16 matchup still carries plenty of intrigue.
Kirk Cousins and the Falcons are coming off a dramatic comeback on Thursday Night Football in Week 15, rallying from a 14-point fourth-quarter deficit in Tampa Bay.
Meanwhile, Arizona enters on a six-game losing streak, but the offense has shown life with veteran quarterback Jacoby Brissett under center.
So how do these teams stack up and where does the betting value lie? I'll break it all down in my Arizona Cardinals vs. Atlanta Falcons preview and best bet.
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Arizona Cardinals vs Atlanta Falcons Preview & Best Bet
Will Kirk Cousins deliver another impressive offensive output in Week 16?
Cardinals vs Falcons Preview
Oddsmakers opened Kirk Cousins and the Falcons as 1.5-point road favorites, with the total set around 46. Since then, Atlanta has been bet up to a three-point favorite and the total has climbed to 48.
The move on the total makes sense, given that neither defense has shown much improvement this season. Arizona ranks 31st in success rate and 25th in EPA per play allowed, while Atlanta sits 24th and 19th in those same categories.
Since taking over in Week 6, Brissett has completed 256 of 386 passes (66.3%) for 2,708 yards with an 18-to-6 touchdown-to-interception ratio. He's averaging 28.4 completions, 42.8 attempts and 301 passing yards per game.
That said, Brissett may not need to hit those numbers for Arizona to stay competitive. The Falcons bring in a vulnerable run defense, ranking 28th in rush success rate and 24th in rush EPA per play. They're allowing 4.5 yards per carry, which happens to be the same figure Arizona gives up on the ground.
All signs point toward a favorable offensive setup for the Cardinals. They should be able to do damage on the ground, and with Marvin Harrison Jr. added to a pass-catching group that already includes Michael Wilson and tight end Trey McBride, this is an offense few defenses want to deal with – especially one as shaky as Atlanta's.
Let's flip to the other side and examine the impact Kirk Cousins has had on Atlanta's offense since taking over.
His first start this season was a nightmare. Cousins and the Falcons hosted the Dolphins – who at the time, and arguably still now, fielded one of the league's weakest defenses. Despite completing 21 of 31 passes, Cousins managed just 173 yards with no touchdowns or turnovers, as Miami cruised to a 34–10 win.
Since becoming the full-time starter in Week 12, Cousins has led Atlanta to a 2–2 record, averaging 20.5 completions on 32.5 attempts (63%) for 242 yards per game, with six touchdowns and three interceptions.
He's coming off a standout performance against Tampa Bay, throwing for 373 yards while completing 30 of 44 passes with three touchdowns and no turnovers.
On paper, Cousins is in a strong spot to build on that showing. As noted earlier, Arizona's defense has been a problem all season, ranking 31st in success rate and 25th in EPA per play allowed.
Those numbers have only worsened during the Cardinals' losing streak. Since Week 10, Arizona ranks:
- 29th in EPA per play
- 32nd in success rate
- 30th in dropback EPA
- 32nd in dropback success rate
- 26th in rush EPA
- 25th in rush success rate
All of this helps explain why bettors have poured money into the over and toward the Falcons. However, I won't be…
Cardinals vs Falcons Best Bet
I'm taking +3 with the home underdog. As poor as Arizona's defense has been, Atlanta isn't far behind. Brissett has this offense playing at a competitive level and consistently moving the ball downfield.
The Cardinals have also shown some improvement in the red zone of late. For the season, Arizona ranks 18th in red-zone scoring at 57.4%, but that number has jumped to 66.7% over their last three games. Defensively, they rank 19th, allowing opponents to score inside the 20 at a 59% clip.
Atlanta grades slightly better on the season, allowing a 58% red-zone success rate, but that figure has skyrocketed to 70% over its past three games.
Just because Cousins led the Falcons to a dramatic primetime comeback against one of the league's most fraudulent teams last week doesn't justify them being a three-point road favorite against a competent offense.
Best Bet: Arizona Cardinals +3 (-115)
NFL Record: 85-69-1 (+5.53 units)
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Danny Burke is a betting analyst with a decade of sports media experience. He got his start at the University of Nebraska-Lincoln, sharing picks on the local ESPN affiliate. After college, he hosted shows for VSiN in Las Vegas before returning to Chicago to launch 'Rush Hour', the first daily sports betting show from an Illinois casino. He also co-hosted 'Props and Locks' on Fox32’s Bears pregame show and ran 'Bet On, Chicago' on WLS-AM 890.
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