Back in Jerry’s World: Commanders vs. Cowboys — NFL Expert Picks & Predictions (9/20)
Written by: Varun Sharma
Last Update: Sat Sep 19, 2026, 4:27 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
nfl
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+4.5
-110
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+180
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-4.0
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The Denver Broncos will host the Jacksonville Jaguars this week, as they look to bounce back after an ugly loss in Kansas City. Problem is, the last time the Jaguars made the trip out to the Rockies, it got ugly for the Broncos.
We've got a lot to discuss, let's jump right into this one.
For additional information on picks, props, moneylines, and more on today's slate, take a look at our NFL Picks Page or our NFL Odds Page.
Game Information
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Matchup Information
- Location: AT&T Stadium; Arlington, Texas
- Date: Sunday, September 20th, 2026
- Kickoff: 4:25 PM EST
Quarterback Matchup
- Washington Commanders: Jayden Daniels (2025: 2-5; 180.3 YPG | 8 TD | 3 INT)
- Dallas Cowboys: Dak Prescott (2025: 7-9-1; 267.8 YPG | 30 TD | 10 INT)
Betting Odds
Odds via Lucky Rebel, an industry leader in the sports betting world.
Analysis & Breakdown
All in on Five
After an electric rookie season that ended in the NFC Championship Game. Jayden Daniels is back for year three and hoping to get back into the playoffs after an injury riddled sophomore year.
The Commanders came out in Week 1 and for three quarters just looked terrible. The team scored just 9 points in the first half, then came out in the third and put up a donut.
Washington went into the fourth quarter down 17-9 to the Eagles and the game looked all but over. That is until the Commanders scored 2 touchdowns in the fourth, bringing the game to within 2-points.
With 1-minute left, Antonio Daniels caught his first career touchdown and the Commanders were a 2-point conversion from tying the game. Washington failed to convert and went home with their first loss of the year.
Washington allowed just one sack, but the offensive line gave up a 50% pressure rate; the highest of Jayden's career and that was with a very low blitz rate.
The Commanders offensive line is going to be the story of the season for Washington and after multiple missed games from Daniels in his first two years; I just don't know if they have the personnel.
Jerry's World
The Cowboys looked terrible in Week 1 and all the hype preseason seemed to be for naught. Dak Prescott threw for just 175 yards, 2 touchdowns and 1 interception. Both CeeDee Lamb and George Pickens were MIA and even Brandon Aubrey missed an extra point.
The Cowboys scored just 20 points, had 244 yards of total offense and averaged just 4.7 yards per play. Dallas had one of the scariest offenses in the NFL last year and in Week 1 they were neutralized by a new-look Giants squad.
The one game sample size isn't enough for me to give up on the Cowboys, especially when we know how much better they are here in Arlington.
Dallas was 5th in points per game last year, averaging 27.7 points per game and 29.9 points per game at AT&T Stadium. The offense comes alive when playing in the comfort of a dome and while I don't love that, this week's the home opener.
Outside of the issues on offense, the defense looked just as bad as last year. The Boys gave up 28 points, 394 yards of offense, 29 first downs, a near 90% third down conversion rate and allowed a touchdown all four of the Giants redzone drives.
New York averaged 7.4 yards per pass against Dallas in Week 1 and Jaxson Dart finished with 230 yards, 3 passing touchdowns and a passer rating of 134.2. The Cowboys secondary needs to do better if this team hopes to make a serious run this year.
Sunday's Best Bets
George Pickens o59.5 Receiving Yards (-130) | Lucky Rebel
Georgie. That's the guy I'm going with and I could care less about how bad this air attack looked in Week 1.
The Giants did a great job of making Dak uncomfortable in the pocket and it's because their front seven just had the personnel to do it. The Cowboys are going from lining up against Abdul Carter, Arvell Reeese and the rest of that front; to now lining up against a much softer Commanders DL.
Dak with time in the pocket, back in AT&T Stadium and with his top two weapons out on the field; I love everything about this spot.
Pickens averaged 95.0 yards per game here in Jerry's World last year and it was all because of how well Dak played. Dak averaged 300.8 yards per game here in Arlington last year, completing 68% of his passes with 15 touchdowns and just 4 interceptions.
The Cowboys just love Jerry's World and I'm not going to ignore it.
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