Is there value in taking Josh Allen?
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- Matthew Stafford +120 –> -275
- Drake Maye +115 –> +400
- Josh Allen +2000 –> +650
- Jaxson Smith-Njigba –> +900
- Bo Nix +6600 –> +12500
Previous odds are from December 1, 2025
NFL MVP Insights
With the season winding down and the odds shifting by the week, it is time to revisit the NFL MVP market. Rams quarterback Matthew Stafford leads the way as a heavy favorite at -275 odds, with Drake Maye and Josh Allen trailing behind. Stafford currently leads the league in touchdowns with 37 and ranks second in passing yards. He has been a major driver of the Rams' success this season, even in year 17. With only a few games left and Los Angeles tied in the NFC West with Seattle, there is a real question of whether Stafford could slide in the market if the Rams stumble this weekend?
Where Is the Value?
I do not think backing either Maye or Allen right now is a bad approach. With three games remaining, the Buffalo Bills head to Cleveland for their final road game, then return home to face the Eagles and the Jets. The Patriots, meanwhile, travel to Baltimore and New York to face the Jets before closing the season at home against the Dolphins. If you believe either Allen or Maye is set to go on a late season run over the final three games and make a push for the AFC East title, that is where the value lies in this market.
As for Stafford, the Rams travel to Seattle and Atlanta before hosting Arizona to close the season. If the Seahawks manage to get revenge and either Atlanta or Arizona pulls an upset, the door opens for Maye and Allen to climb the odds board in a meaningful way.
Everyone is fighting for their division, and each of these three quarterbacks has a unique narrative. Who will come out on top?
For those wondering why I am not mentioning any value in Seattle's Jaxon Smith Njigba, this is a quarterback award. He stands no chance. Myles Garrett is on the cusp of breaking the single season sack record, yet he is nowhere to be found on the odds board. This award will run through the three quarterbacks listed above, and I would look to attack either Maye or Allen over the final three games at prices above four to one and six to one.
