2024 Comeback Player of the Year: Odds & Key Insights | December 12, 2024
Written by: Colby Marchio
Published: Thu Dec 12, 2024, 11:19 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
nfl
If you're betting on the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year award, there's a new twist you need to know about. The criteria now focus on players who've battled back from injuries or other adversity that kept them off the field, rather than just showing major improvement. This change could seriously shake up the odds, so make sure you're factoring it in before placing your bets.
Would the NFL Comeback Player of the Year award be meaningful to Joe Burrow?
"Very much so."
Burrow could join Chad Pennington as the only quarterbacks to win it twice. pic.twitter.com/DN5E0x815D
— Joe Danneman (@FOX19Joe) December 5, 2024
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Comeback Player Current Odds
Will Joe Burrow win his second Comeback Player of the Year award in 2024?
The following 2024 NFL Comeback Player of the Year odds are courtesy of BetOnline as of Thursday, Dec. 12 at 11:30 A.M. ET.
- Joe Burrow, CIN (-230)
- Kyler Murray, ARI (+900)
- Sam Darnold, MIN (+1000)
- Anthony Richardson, IND (+1200)
- Damar Hamlin, BUF (+1200)
- Russell Wilson, PIT (+1600)
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Award Criteria Change
For those unaware, the NFL's Comeback Player of the Year award criteria were adjusted prior to the start of the 2024 season. The new criteria state:
"The spirit of the AP Comeback Player of the Year award is to honor a player who has demonstrated resilience in the face of adversity by overcoming illness, physical injury, or other circumstances that led him to miss playing time the previous season."
This decision, made last December, couldn't be implemented for the 2023 awards since the season was nearly complete. (Per Jared Dubin, CBS Sports.)
The change appears to have been prompted by Joe Flacco winning the award last season, despite his success being attributed to a high level of performance after years of subpar play. The AP seemingly preferred players like Damar Hamlin, Tua Tagovailoa, Lamar Jackson, or Matthew Stafford—athletes who overcame injuries or other challenges that caused them to miss time the prior season.
This situation raises the question: should there be a separate award entirely? While the term "comeback" suggests an injury-related narrative, the award has historically been viewed as more of an improvement accolade. Regardless, this new rule has flown under the radar and deserves attention, especially for those considering wagers on this award.
Is There Any Value Left?
I wasn't aware of this rule change and placed a half-unit play on Sam Darnold. If the Vikings keep their momentum, possibly winning the NFC North over the Lions, Darnold should be in the conversation. His comeback resembles Geno Smith's—a former New York Jet reviving his career. At 13/1 on some books, it seemed like a decent sprinkle.
However, knowing the new criteria, it's clear the AP is enforcing this change more strictly. Given that, it feels like Joe Burrow might already have his second Comeback Player of the Year award locked up.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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