Tennessee vs Florida Football Prediction & Picks: Is This the Year for the Vols in Gainesville?

Eddie Griffin

Written by: Eddie Griffin

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Tennessee vs Florida Football Prediction & Picks: Is This the Year for the Vols in Gainesville? cover


Since Tennessee vs Florida became a yearly part of the college football schedule, the Gators have heavily dominated the rivalry. But are we about to see things shift? Saturday, the 11th-ranked Vols will look to record rare back-to-back wins over the Gators as the SEC East foes face off in Gainesville (7:00 pm ET, ESPN).

The Vols (2-0) have opened the season with wins over Virginia and Austin Peay, but it’s now time for a step up in competition and a true test for quarterback Joe Milton III.

The Gators (1-1), meanwhile, bounced back from an ugly opener at Utah with a win over McNeese State last week. A win over Tennessee could be the catalyst for a run over the next month with a stretch of winnable games ahead, but Florida will need to put in a much better performance than they did against the first top-15 team they faced this season.

Tennessee vs Florida Odds

Odds are via Bovada.


  • Tennessee -6.5 (-110)
  • Florida +6.5 (-110)


  • Over 58 (-115)
  • Under 58 (-105)


  • Tennessee -245
  • Florida +205

Favored Vols Eyeing Elusive Swamp Success

Tennessee football Austin Peay

Does a rivalry become less of a rivalry when one team dominates it? That’s a matter of individual opinion, but what is fact is that the Gators are 16-2 in their last 18 meetings with the Vols.

That includes nine straight wins in Gainesville since the Vols won 24-10 at the Swamp on September 20, 2003. That win was part of a run of three wins for the Vols in a four-year stretch from 2001 to 2004.

Since Tennessee won the first ten meetings with Florida, the Gators are 31-11 against the Vols, which includes a 25-8 record since the two teams started playing yearly in 1990. Of those 25 wins, 14 have come at the Swamp, where UF is 14-2 against UT in that period.

But is that dominance coming to an end?

In 2022, the Vols, who were also ranked 11th entering last year’s game, snapped a five-game streak with a 38-33 win in Knoxville.

Tennessee hasn’t won back-to-back games against the Gators since 2003 and 2004, but they are favored to end that drought and the others come Saturday night.

While the Gators have the all-time upper hand in this rivalry, there is one very notable thing that sticks out about its history that is relevant to Saturday’s game.

In Tennessee-Florida history, there have been 16 meetings in which one team was ranked and the other wasn’t. How many times has the ranked team beaten the unranked team? Sixteen times.

Ranked vs Unranked Matchups in Tennessee vs Florida Rivalry History

  • 1940: #5 Tennessee 14-0
  • 1944: #15 Tennessee 40-0
  • 1953: #18 Tennessee 9-7
  • 1970: #11 Tennessee 38-7
  • 1971: #12 Tennessee 20-13
  • 1976: #11 Florida 20-18
  • 1977: #19 Florida 27-17
  • 1984: #18 Florida 43-30
  • 2008: #4 Florida 30-6
  • 2009: #1 Florida 23-13
  • 2010: #10 Florida 31-17
  • 2011: #17 Florida 33-23
  • 2013: #19 Florida 31-17
  • 2019: #9 Florida 34-3
  • 2020: #6 Florida 31-19
  • 2021: #11 Florida 38-14

Tennessee vs Florida Prediction and Picks

Prediction: Tennessee to win

Picks: Tennessee -6.5 (-110 at Bovada) & Florida under 12.5 first-half points (-110 at Bovada)

After managing only 13 net rushing yards at Utah, the Gators racked up 327 rushing yards on 51 attempts against McNeese State, with Montrell Johnson Jr. (15 carries, 119 yards, 2 TD), Trevor Etienne (11 carries, 84 yards, TD), and Treyaun Webb (14 carries, 71 yards, 2 TD) all producing.

However, they will find the yards harder to come by against Tennessee, who allowed an average of 2.4 rushing yards per attempt in their wins over Virginia and Austin Peay.

And in this matchup featuring two former Big Ten quarterbacks, I trust Graham Mertz to win games with his arm less than I trust Joe Milton III to do so at this point.

Where to Bet on Tennessee vs Florida

Most top online sportsbooks offer a wide variety of college football odds throughout the season.

In addition to being able to make weekly college football picks all the way from Week Zero to the College Football Playoff National Championship, you can also bet on Heisman Trophy odds, conference championship odds, win totals, and much more.

Along with Bovada, where the Tennessee vs Florida odds in this article are from, there are plenty of sports betting sites you can choose from that are good for college football betting.

Below are some of the other books that we highly recommend:

If you don’t have an account at a book on this list, check out our reviews to help you determine if it is worth your interest and your betting funds.

Eddie Griffin
Eddie Griffin

Eddie Griffin has been writing about and betting on sports for over a decade and has been with Betting News since 2021. For more of his thoughts on sports and sports betting, you can follow him on X, formerly known as Twitter.

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