South Alabama vs Appalachian State: NCAA Football Predictions & Best Bets (9/19)

While Thursday Night Football is dominated by the NFL on Prime, there is still an exciting matchup on the college football side of things as well. The NCAA has a standalone game on ESPN on Thursday as South Alabama takes on Appalachian State. The Mountaineers are hosting the Jaguars in this matchup in Boone, and we are in for a thriller. South Alabama is coming off their first win of the season in which they put up 87 points against Northwestern State where they played a shortened 4th quarter due to the blow out. It was a huge momentum builder for the Jags having lost their first two matchups.

As for Appalachian State, the Mountaineers have won 2 games despite being blown out by Clemson. App State handled business against ETSU at home, managed to put up 20 points against the Tigers defense in a 40 point loss, and then barely squeaked by with a win at Eastern Carolina this past weekend. After being down 16-0 after the first quarter, the Mountaineers battled back to lead 21-16 after the 3rd quarter. They didn't score in the 4th quarter, but their defense came through as they pulled out a 2 point victory.

Now back at home, they host one of the hottest offenses in College Football to start conference play. Appalachian State was highly picked to win the East division of the Sun Belt conference, while the Jaguars of South Alabama were picked to finish in the middle of the pack of the West. My gut would lean with the Mountaineers to start off conference play hot, but let's really dive in and see if we can find out best bets in this matchup!

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South Alabama vs Appalachian State: Thursday Night Showdown

Matchup Information – South Alabama vs Appalachian State

• Venue & Location: Kidd Brewer Stadium (Boone, NC)
• Date: Thursday, September 19th, 2024
• Kick Off: 7:30pm Eastern
• Broadcast: ESPN

Betting Odds

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Spread

• South Alabama +7 (-105)
• Appalachian State -7 (-115)

Money Line

• South Alabama +235
• Appalachian State -280

Total

• Over 63.5 (-110)
• Under 63.5 (-110)

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Will Jaguars Show Up Following 80 Point Outing?

Despite their 1-2 record, the South Alabama offense has shown up. Maybe it's just being amplified by their 80+ point performance last week, but regardless, I see them having some success. Offensively, the Jaguars are producing over 500 yards and 48.3 points per game. Yes, those numbers may be slightly skewed, however I don't necessarily trust the Mountaineers defense to stop them. Freshman Fluff Bothwell has stepped up as the lead back for the Jaguars, and he's done incredibly well.

Can Mountaineers Slow Down Fluff?

He's scored in every game with 4 TDs total, has almost 250 rushing yards on the year including a 57 yarder last weekend, and is doing it very efficiently. Bothwell is running for 10 yards per carry, backup RB Kentrel Bullock is going for 8.3, and even dual threat QB Gio Lopez is adding 4.7 yards per run on the ground.

This should certainly do the trick against an Appalachian State defense that is giving up 175 yards on the ground and 5.5 per rush this season. Against Clemson, the Mountaineers conceded over 250 rushing yards and over 7 yards per carry. It could be a long day for the defense if South Alabama is able to run all over them. Running the ball is certainly the way to attack the Mountaineers, and the Jaguars are still plenty efficient moving the ball in bunches on the ground, which will only open up more in the passing attack.

As for the Appalachian State offense, they rely heavily on the arm of Joey Aguilar. The Senior QB has 5 TDs and 2 picks on the year with 964 passing yards. He's also added 2 TDs on the ground as well, but we saw some serious struggles against Clemson. The Tigers defense is one of the best in the country, and they held Aguilar to a 44% completion rate and just 214 yards through the air. South Alabama's defense is nowhere near the caliber of Clemson's, and Aguilar is coming off a solid game, so let's look at his numbers in the Mountaineers two wins this year.

In his two wins, Aguilar posts the following stat line.

Joey Aguilar in 2 Wins

• 54/83 Passing
• 65% Completion Rate
• 375 Yards/Game
• 4-2 TD-INT Ratio
• 23.5 Rushing Yards/Game
• 2 Rushing TDs

Point being, when this guy faces a defense that isn't Top 10 in the country, he is very, very good. Aguilar can make plays with his legs if he has to, he's careful and efficient with the football, and doesn't hesitate under pressure. At home, against a Jaguars defense that allowed over 300 passing yards per game in their first two contests, Aguilar should be just fine moving the ball.

Ultimately I like both of these offenses a lot more than the defenses, and so I will be betting as such.

South Alabama vs Appalachian State Best Bets

South Alabama vs Appalachian State Prediction: App State Wins & Covers, Over 63.5

Best Bets: So Bama/App State Over 63.5 (-110) BetOnline

We are rooting for points in Boone on Thursday Night, with a bet on the home town team as well. Ultimately, I just don't trust either defense. The Jaguars couldn't stop North Texas or Ohio from scoring in their two losses. Leaving out their 77 point blowout, South Alabama is allowing nearly 40 points per contest. North Texas QB, Chandler Morris, threw for 415 yards and 3 TDs while adding 17 yards and 2 TDs on the ground. He picked apart the Jaguars secondary, completing nearly 80% of his passes. I see Joey Aguilar doing the exact same thing at home.

While he was "shut down" against Clemson, he didn't make any mistakes and still competed. Against a much weaker defense at home, I see him having a great day on the gridiron. I fail to see this South Alabama secondary being able to slow him down.

On the other side of things, I don't see the Mountaineers being able to stop the Jaguars offense either. With a mobile QB that can sling it, mixed with a RB who is tough to take down, South Alabama can certainly score at will. I see them doing that tomorrow night. However, I think plenty of points gives Appalachian State plenty of opportunities to cover. Look for them to ride the momentum of their comeback win from last weekend, while South Alabama's defense gets a wake up call on the road.

Bonus Bets: Appalachian State -7 (-115) BetOnline

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