College Football Expert Picks: Boom or Bust Teams in 2026/27 Season
Written by: PJ Glasser
Published: Wed Aug 19, 2026, 10:36 am ET
Read Time: 7 minutes
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We're getting closer and closer to the College Football season. Now just 10 days away from Week 0!
I wanted to look at the three teams in college football that I believe are the most boom or bust this season. If everything goes right this team could potentially win the National Championship. However, if things go wrong this team could miss the playoff or severely underperform on expectations.
The Top 25 AP Poll got released this week make sure you check out Nate Hornung's article on the top teams in the sport and their odds to win the title.
Also with College Football around the corner, check out the best odds on the market and tons of picks for the NCAA Football Season.
Boom or Bust Team#1: Texas
Will Arch Manning live up to the hype this season?
According to BetOnline, Texas is currently +650 with win the national title. They are tied with Oregon and Notre Dame for the second best odds to win the whole thing. They are also +320 to win the SEC, only behind Georgia.
Expectations are big in Austin this year. As big as they have been in a LONG time. You can understand why, which Arch back at QB and the fact they could have potentially five first round draft picks this upcoming year. Their talent is undeniable and they are absolutely good enough to win the whole thing. If Arch ends up being as good as everyone thinks, with a much better offensive line this year, two stud receivers, and a very good defense the Longhorns can lift the trophy this season.
That's the good. Here is the bad.. There isn't a bigger game in college football this season than Ohio State vs Texas in Week 2. Texas must win that game. MUST. If they don't I think their is a chance Texas' season could get away from them.
I view Texas as potentially being this year's Penn State from last year. Penn State had enormous expectations last year as well, but lost that early season game at home to Oregon and then their season completely spiraled. I'm not saying Texas will have a season to that extent if they lost to Ohio State,but I definitely think they'll miss the playoff.
Longhorns are at Tennessee, at LSU, and at A&M this season. They also have Ole Miss at home and play Oklahoma at the Cotton Bowl. There is absolutely a world where Texas can lose 4 of those games. You lose the Ohio State game and all of a sudden you're looking at 7-5. Keep in mind last season in true road games that Texas played – Loss at Ohio State, loss at Florida, loss at Georgia, win at Kentucky (OT), win at Mississippi State (OT). They played 5 true road games last year. Lost 3 of them and both their wins came in OT to argubably two of the bottom 3 teams in the SEC last season.
Texas has to win the Ohio State game. If they do, I think it propels them to a great season and they can win it all. If they lose then I think there is a chance they could go 8-4 or maybe even 7-5.
Boom or Bust Team #2: Alabama
Alabama is flying under the radar for the first time in a long time
When the Top 25 AP poll got released this week for the first time in 18 years, Alabama wasn't in the preseason Top 10. The Crimson Tide came in at 13th and they are one of the big unknowns coming into the season. Alabama has the 3rd best odds to win the SEC (+850) and they are 25-1 to win the national title.
What makes Alabama a boom or bust team this year is the fact they don't have a proven Quarterback. All the top teams in CFB have a QB that has been a starter for at least one season. Bama doesn't have that. Whether it ends up being Austin Mack or Keelon Russell we have no idea how good either QB will be or how bad.
Alabama's win total at most shops is 8.5. They have a stretch of the season between October 10th – November 7th where the play Georgia and A&M at home and Tennessee and LSU on the road. They could go 4-0, 0-4, or anything in between during that stretch. The rest of their games they are probably going to be a double digit favorite. In his first two years in Tuscaloosa, DeBoer has lost some games when he's a big favorite. A big question is will that happen again this season?
I feel like Bama probably goes 9-3 this season. However, there is definitely a scenario where they go 12-0 if their QB ends up being awesome. They also could go 8-4 if the O-line struggles again and the QB isn't very good.
It's fascinating to see a Bama team not really talked about in the national championship conversation this season, but if they get strong QB play they will enter the chat.
Boom or Bust Team #3: Michigan
Can Bryce Underwood take a big step in Year 2 as Michigan's QB?
So much talk in the BIG 10 this year is about the big 3: Ohio State, Oregon, and Indiana. We could have a big 4 if Michigan pans out this season.
On paper the Wolverines aren't as strong as these other 3 teams and with roadtrips to Oregon and Ohio State on the schedule and home games vs Indiana, Penn State, Iowa, and Oklahoma it's a difficult test Michigan has in front of them this season. However, we all know in College Football if you have the Quarterback, you can beat anyone.
Bryce Underwood was the consensus number 1 overall recruit in the country coming out of High School in the 2025 class. His talent is undeniable and you saw flashes of it last season. He's a great athlete and has a cannon for an arm. Kyle Whittingham is a terrific coach and if he can get the most out of Underwood than Michigan can be dangerous this season.
I think Michigan is such a good boom or bust candidate because Whittingham was the coach at Utah for 21 years. Now, at 66 years old he takes over one of the biggest brands in the sport and no one has any idea what that is going to look like. If he turns out to be a great fit and Underwood bounces back from a disappointing freshman season then look out.
Right now a lot of people are looking at Michigan's schedule and are predicting 8-4 most likely if not worse. Again, if everything hits the year with Michigan don't be surprised if they make the CFB Playoff and possibly turn themselves into a title contender.
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PJ has hosted national radio shows for the past 4 years on BETMGM Network and Westwood One Sports breaking down college football, college basketball, the NFL, MLB, and Golf. His sharp analysis and insight have earned him a growing following that looks forward to all his picks. Give him a follow on X: @PJGlasser9
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