Top 15 Big Ten Showdown: #5 Ohio State vs. #14 Iowa NCAA Football Picks & Predictions (10/3)
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Fri Oct 02, 2026, 2:17 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
ncaaf
Spread
Total
Moneyline
-14.0
-118
46
-110u
-650
Spread
Total
Moneyline
+14.5
-110
45
-105o
+476
While the six ranked on ranked matchups from Week 4 will be tough to follow up, we have three ranked on ranked contests this Saturday, including a top 15 matchup in Iowa City in the Big Ten. I'm talking about the big, bad Buckeyes of Ohio State, taking on the No. 14 ranked Iowa Hawkeyes. Of course we also have two SEC matchups, as Alabama takes on Mississippi State and Missouri hosts Florida, but for now, let's head to the heart of the Midwest to find out how this contest will play out. Keep reading for our expert NCAA Football picks as Iowa hosts Ohio State. Can they pull off the two touchdown upset?
Check out the best odds on the market and tons of picks for the NCAA Football Season.
NCAA Football Expert Insights: #5 Ohio State Buckeyes vs. #14 Iowa Hawkeyes
Jeremiah Smith put up insane numbers against Illinois. Could he win the Heisman as wide out?
Iowa is 4-0 on the year while the Buckeyes are 3-1, but both bring a 1-0 Big Ten record into this conference showdown. The Hawkeyes last win over Ohio State came back in 2017, and since then, the few meetings have been far less than competitive. Not only that, but the hosts are coming off a walk off win on the road in Ann Arbor, making this a very clear "let down spot" in my eyes. Will that come into play?
Ohio State already lost to Texas, so they can't afford anymore slip ups. They host Maryland next week, and go to Bloomington after that, so there shouldn't be any look ahead factor. Ryan Day's team needs to come focused, and pounce on the scoreboard early, making sure the crowd doesn't get any extra hope. Some say that the Hawkeyes don't stand a chance with Gameday coming to town.
Let's find out if there's any truth to that claim.
Matchup Information – Ohio State vs. Iowa – October 3
- Venue & Location: Kinnick Stadium (Iowa City, IA)
- Date: Saturday, October 3, 2026
- Kick Off: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: CBS
Buckeyes vs. Hawkeyes Betting Odds
Odds listed are from BetOnline as of Friday, October 2, 2026 at 1:43 p.m. eastern.
Spread
- Ohio State -14 (-118)
- Iowa +14 (-102)
Moneyline
- Ohio State -625
- Iowa +461
Total
- Over 45.5 (-115)
- Under 45.5 (-105)
#5 Ohio State vs. #14 Iowa: NCAA Football Expert Picks
Kamari Moulton is running for 7.3 yards per carry this season with two touchdowns already
Ohio State vs. Iowa Prediction: Ohio State Wins & Covers, Under 45.5
Best Bets: Ohio State/Iowa 1H Under 23.5 (-105) BetOnline
My mind is torn here. I lean under heavily in this game, and my gut wants me to take the Hawkeyes catching two touchdowns. However, I am having flashbacks to backing the No. 17 ranked Fighting Illini at home against the Buckeyes last season as two touchdown home underdogs, where they ended up losing by 18. This one feels eerily similar, and for that reason, I have laid the points with Ohio State in a pick'em contest.
However with the sportsbook, I'll take this first half under.
Iowa is coming down off a major emotional win on the road, and you do not want to get into a shootout with Ohio State. Look for the Hawkeyes to be VERY cautious offensively early on, looking to establish the run and chew up as much clock as possible, keeping Julian Sayin and the Buckeye's offense on the sidelines. I don't expect Iowa to score much, if any in the first two quarters. And I'm betting on them at least containing their visitors. Ohio State allowed just three first half points to Texas in Austin, the Hawkeyes might be lucky to get on the scoreboard. Especially considering they put up just seven in the first half against Michigan.
This game is going to start slow, maybe it picks up in the second half. I am preparing for a sweat, as 21 first half points wouldn't surprise me. Maybe it's 14-7 Buckeyes, maybe 17-3, maybe even 21-0 Ohio State. Regardless, I am comfortable betting this first half total for an afternoon sweat on Saturday.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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