Week 5 Saturday Best Bets: NCAA Football Expert Picks & Predictions (10/3)
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Sat Oct 03, 2026, 8:55 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Another Saturday rolls around bringing us plenty of college football action on our screens. Although we only have three ranked on ranked matchups this weekend, there are still plenty of spots worth wagering on. Tap in to our NCAA Football expert picks below to see if you'll tail or fade our analysts this weekend.
Check out the best odds on the market and tons of picks for the NCAA Football Season.
NCAA Football Saturday's Predictions – October 3
#7 Alabama vs. #16 Mississippi State NCAA Football Picks
Best Bet: Mississippi State +6 (-110) BetOnline
Read all about why PJ Glasser is fading his alma mater tonight and taking some action with the Bulldogs.
UTSA vs. Rice NCAA Football Picks
Owen McCown and the Roadrunners are rolling through any opponent they face this year.
Best Bet: UTSA -11.5 (-108) BetOnline
This will be a quick sell job, as the Roadrunners covered for us last week, I'll back them to do it again. Rice is just a noncompetitive program at this point, and UTSA is on a ridiculous winning streak against this team specifically. I certainly think this team can cover the spread tonight, as I do have them to win the entire American Conference.
Michigan vs. Minnesota NCAA Football Picks
I still can't get a grip on how good (or bad) Bryce Underwood really is
Best Bet: Michigan/Minnesota Under 43.5 (-108) BetOnline
Michigan is coming off a massive loss at home to Iowa on the last play of the game, while Minnesota just upset Washington on the road as 12 point underdogs. This is a very clear "Michigan Bounce Back Spot" in my eyes, but instead I'll take the under. The Golden Gophers are a frisky team, and proved they can play with the big boys.
I like Minnesota catching the 5.5 here, but ultimately think their defense steps up and makes it a competitive game.
#8 Florida vs. #25 Missouri NCAA Football Picks
Best Bet: Aaron Philo Over 213.5 Passing Yards (-115) BetOnline
I am also taking Philo's Over 23.5 pass attempts for -105 as well. You can read all about it here.
However, I think this is the game where he is forced to use his arm. Missouri needs to stack the box and eliminate the possibility of Jadan Baugh running all over the field. He'll probably do it anyways, but the Tigers need to force the Gators to beat them with Philo's arm. He cleared this line with ease on just 16 completions against FAU and Campbell, but if he throws the ball at least 25 times tonight, I'm confident in him clearing this number.
#5 Ohio State vs. #14 Iowa NCAA Football Picks
Best Bet: Ohio State/Iowa 1H Under 23.5 (-105) BetOnline
Iowa games scream under, especially at Kinnick Stadium. The Hawkeyes are smart, they don't want to get into a shootout with the Buckeyes. They need a defensive game in order to stand a chance, so buckle up in the first half and try to slow down your visitors.
Virginia vs. Florida State NCAA Football Picks
Back Beau Pribula to use his legs today against Florida State
Best Bet: Beau Pribula Over 19.5 Rushing Yards (-125) BetOnline
This dude had 115 against NC State and 29 against Delaware last week. He is going to be forced to use his legs on the road against a Florida State team that needs a win. I am not worried about him taking too many sacks today, but he should escape and contribute on the run.
The Seminoles allowed Keelon Russell to run for 57 yards, and Kevin Jennings had 33. Pribula is a slightly better runner than both of those guys, and I see him showing us today with a major discount on his line. Check out more CFB Player Props here.
A Moneyline Parlay for Fun!
Best Bet: Texas State/Arizona State ML Parlay (+141) BetOnline
Full transparency, I took this wager when the Bobcats were still only favored by 4.5 points. Now they have steamed up to 8.5. I still like their moneyline, but this exact parlay is only about even money now. Feel free to add the Tennessee Volunteers, the BYU Cougars, or the Nebraska Cornhuskers as a third leg to bump this up to plus money.
Best of luck, and enjoy your Saturday! We only have so many left this season!
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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