Central Michigan vs Michigan State Prediction & Picks: Spartans Continue Dominance

Week 1 of the 2023 NCAA College Football season continues Friday with a huge matchup between the Central Michigan Chippewas and Michigan State Spartans. Fans have been waiting a while for this matchup because it's been nearly five years since the last Central Michigan vs Michigan State showdown.

Game 1️⃣.
Friday.
7 pm. #RELENTLESS pic.twitter.com/J0pvSDm1GL

— Michigan State Football (@MSU_Football) August 31, 2023

Both of these schools could use a win to open the new campaign. After all, the Chippewas finished third-worst in the MAC last year with a 3-5 conference record (4-8 overall) while the Spartans also finished near the bottom of the Big Ten, going 3-6 against the conference with a 5-7 overall record.

If you're looking to place some Central Michigan vs Michigan State bets tonight, Betting News has you covered. Continue reading to find out the latest odds, predictions, and best bets to make.

Central Michigan vs Michigan State Tonight (Sept. 1)

CMU vs. MSU Game Information

• Matchup: Central Michigan Chippewas (0-0, 0-0 Away) vs. Michigan State Spartans (0-0, 0-0 Home)
• Venue & Location: Spartan Stadium (East Lansing, Michigan)
• Date: Friday, Sept. 1, 2023
• Game Time: 7 p.m. Eastern Time
• Where to Watch Central Michigan vs Michigan State: FS1

Central Michigan vs Michigan State Odds

NCAAF odds courtesy of Bovada as of Friday, Sept. 1 at 8:44 a.m. ET from. Odds from other sportsbooks may also be mentioned in this article.

Spread

• Central Michigan Chippewas +13.5 (-105)
• Michigan State Spartans -13.5 (-115)

Over/Under

• Over 45 Points (-110)
• Under 45 Points (-110)

Moneyline

• Central Michigan Chippewas +430
• Michigan State Spartans -625

Central Michigan vs Michigan State Betting Trends

• Central Michigan is 0-5 straight up in its last five games against the Big Ten.
• Michigan State is 6-1 straight up in its last seven games against Central Michigan.
• Central Michigan is 6-1 ATS in its last seven Week 1 matchups.
• Michigan State is 1-4 ATS in its last five home games on a Saturday.
• The over is 4-2 in Central Michigan's last six games played in September.
• The over is 4-1 in Michigan State's last five games.

Central Michigan vs Michigan State Head-to-Head Preview

The moneyline odds are extremely lopsided ahead of tonight's matchup. Bovada currently favors Michigan State at -625 odds, carrying an implied win probability of 86.2%.

Michigan State earned its favorable odds due to its recent dominance over Central Michigan, winning six of the last seven matchups between the schools. They most recently met on Sept. 29, 2018, at Spartan Stadium, resulting in a 31-20 victory over the Spartans.

Michigan State has now beaten CMU in eight of their last nine meetings, outscoring the latter by an average of 19.7 PPG. What's even more impressive is that the Spartans held the Chippewas to 10 or fewer points in five of those matchups — including three of the last four.

The truth is that Central Michigan isn't used to finding success against the Big Ten, dropping each of its last five games against the conference. On the flip side, Michigan State has won 15 consecutive games against the MAC.

A quick look at last season's stats further shows how one-sided this tilt is.

For example, Central Michigan's defense was putrid last season, surrendering 30.7 PPG (No. 97) which increased to 35.0 PPG on the road — good for 20th-worst in the FBS. On the other hand, Michigan State allowed 27.4 PPG overall (No. 63) and an average of 26.3 points at home.

Offensively, both schools produced similar averages. The Chippewas finished the 2022 campaign with a 23.3 PPG clip (No. 88) while the Spartans weren't too far ahead of them (24.4 PPG, T-No. 81).

Having said that, MSU's superior offense and defense led to a plus-3.1 average scoring margin at home, whereas CMU finished at a minus-8.8 rating on the road.

Even though it's a fresh campaign, the above stats and overall history between these schools prove that the Chippewas likely have an uphill battle tonight.

Central Michigan vs Michigan State Prediction and Picks

Central Michigan vs Michigan State Prediction: Michigan State 33, Central Michigan 17

Central Michigan vs Michigan State Best Bets: Michigan State -13.5 (Best Value: -115 on Bovada ) & Over 45 Total Points (-110 on Bovada)

You shouldn't overthink things: Michigan State is going to win convincingly. The Spartans have defeated the Chippewas by 14+ points in seven of the last nine meetings and with the trouble CMU has had scoring the ball, I see that trend continuing.

I also recommend backing the over on the 45-point total. The last five matchups between these schools have seen an average of 49.4 points scored, finishing with the over on this prop bet four times during that span.

After CMU and MSU combined for 51 points in their previous matchup, expect more offense tonight.

More Betting Content

How can I bet on CMU vs MSU?

All of the top online sports betting sites will have NCAAF odds, but here are some of the sites we recommend most for college football enthusiasts.