NCAA Football Conference Championships: Best Bets & Top Picks
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Sat Dec 02, 2023, 9:34 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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College Football is back in action for Conference Championship Weekend! We've got tons of college kids playing this weekend so let's get right into our NCAA Football Conference Championship Best Bets!
NCAA Football Conference Championships Preview
Here is how we stand on betting CFB through thirteen weeks of play.
- 53-64-1
- -6.58 units
We've had plenty of success with player props.
- NCAAF Prop Bets
- 21-17 +6.4 units
We've also picked our spots incredibly well.
- NCAAF 2U Plays
- 10-1 +18.4 units
Let's get into this week's action!
Free NCAA Football Conference Championship Picks
#18 Oklahoma State vs #7 Texas
Big 12 Championship Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: AT&T Stadium (Arlington, TX)
- Date: Saturday, December 2nd, 2023
- Kick Off: 12:00pm Eastern
- Broadcast: ABC
The Pick: Adonai Mitchell (TEX) Over 51.5 Receiving Yards (-115) Bovada
The Longhorns are trying to sneak their way into the College Football Playoff, and might not even get in with a win. This should piss Texas off, and they should come out screaming.
It would be hard for the committee to deny the Longhorns if they came out and smacked Oklahoma State, and I think they do just that. Although I'm not backing them on the spread, I will put my coin on Mitchell to get over his yards.
He's cleared 52+ Yards in just 5/12 games this season, but he has done so in 3 of his L5, including a game with 149 receiving yards. Mitchell has only caught more than 3 passes in two games this season, but he went for 10 receptions and 8 receptions in those two games.
The Oklahoma State defense already gives up 250 yards per game in the air, and that number is up to 253 in their past 3 games.
Mitchell is a deep ball threat, clearing this yardage mark in just 3 catches on 3 separate occasions, so it doesn't take much. He's had a 20+ yard reception in 6/12 games this season, including 4 of his L5.
He averages just over 15 yards per catch this year, and I think Texas throws the ball plenty and spreads the love to all their receivers.
In a Conference Championship game, I think this number is far too low for Mitchell.
#14 Louisville vs #4 Florida State
ACC Championship Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Bank of America Stadium (Charlotte, NC)
- Date: Saturday, December 2nd, 2023
- Kick Off: 8:00pm Eastern
- Broadcast: ABC
The Pick: Jawhar Jordan (Louisville) Over 70.5 Rushing Yards (-115) Bovada
This guy has cashed his rushing yards for us both times we've bet on him, including a ladder in Week 1 and a 2U play later in the season.
This is a line Jordan has cleared in 7/12 games this season, with 5 games posting 100+ yards on the ground. Now, he's only cleared this once in his L3 games, but this should be a game Louisville wins, leading to extra carries for Jordan.
He averages 14 carries for 89.7 yards over the course of the season, plus he's built for the big plays. Jordan has busted off a run for 40+ yards in 5 games this season, and a 20+ yard run in 2 other games as well.
Against FSU last season, Jordan had 17 carries for 91 yards. This season, Florida State allows 140 yards on the ground, so it's a good thing Jordan takes most of the ground work for the Cardinals.
He accounts for 48.8% of Louisville's rushing yards this season, posting 1,076 throughout the season.
If Louisville comes to play like I predict, then Jordan could easily get 90-100 yards again this game.
Bonus Pick: Louisville ML (+115) BetDSI
Although I am (sort of) rooting for the Seminoles, I am doing so just to make the committee's life harder. This seems like a win-win for me, because either Louisville cashes for us as an outright dog, or the committee will be forced to deal with an undefeated, Power 5, Conference Champ.
My guess, they leave them out because of entertainment value, or lack thereof with no Jordan Travis, which would be a very bad look on the committee's part.
I thrive in the chaos.
But, I do think Louisville wins. Yes, Florida State squeaked out a win against Florida, but you do not want to face this Cardinals team coming off a loss.
After they lost to Pittsburgh earlier this year, Louisville came out and shutout #20 Duke, on their way to a 23-0 victory.
I think the Cardinals are too much for the Seminoles and take this ACC Championship.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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