Alabama vs Michigan, Best Bets: January 1st, 2024
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Mon Jan 01, 2024, 11:00 am ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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The College Football Playoff is here! We get the Rose Bowl in Pasadena between the #1 Michigan Wolverines against the #4 Alabama Crimson Tide.
The Wolverines have been perfect all year long, beating Ohio State and then winning the Big Ten Championship.
On the other sideline, we have a very familiar face. Once again, Nick Saban has managed to sneak his way into the CFP despite some early season hiccups. The Tide upset Georgia in the SEC Championship, therefore punching their ticket to the Playoff, even if I personally think Florida State is more deserving of playing for a championship.
Nevertheless, here we go.
The Rose Bowl – Alabama vs Michigan
Matchup Information
- Venue & Location: Rose Bowl (Pasadena, CA)
- Date: Monday, January 1st, 2024
- Kick Off: 5:00pm Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPN
Betting Odds
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Spread
- Alabama +1.5 (-115)
- Michigan -1.5 (-105)
Moneyline
- Alabama +100
- Michigan -120
Total
- Over 44.5 (-110)
- Under 44.5 (-110)
Can the Tide Roll Over the Wolverines?
I already don't think Alabama deserves to play in this College Football Playoff, however, I'm not going to bet a side in this game.
Obviously Michigan has a perfect record, and they've looked fairly dominant beating opponents by an average of nearly four touchdowns. Although they are 10th in scoring offense putting up over 36 PPG, their defense is rock solid.
Michigan's Defense is number one in the country in points allowed, giving up less than 10 per game. Usually holding your opponent to single digits will result in a win, but it is worth noting that number is up to 16 in their last 3 games.
Could Alabama's offense break through against this Wolverines defense?
Well, despite their one loss to Texas, Alabama struggled a lot this year. They barely beat South Florida on the road, won plenty of one possession games at A&M, at Auburn, and against Arkansas at home.
But Alabama's defense has brought them back to life. The Tide have only allowed 30+ points once this season, their lone loss to the Longhorns. They've shut down opponents, holding them to less than 20 points per game, with that number dropping to 18 away from home.
Can you tell where I'm leaning yet?
Free NCAA Football Picks – Alabama vs Michigan
The Pick: Bama/Mich Under 44.5 (-105) Get These Odds and a Deposit Bonus @ BetOnline
Both of these defenses are rock solid, and we've seen the offenses struggle.
Despite the Wolverines scoring 36+ per game, that number is down to 26.7 against teams like Penn State, Ohio State and Iowa, teams with defenses as good or better than Alabama's. It's also worth noting all three of those games were apart of Michigan's final four contests.
Alabama averages over 30 points per game as well, but we've seen tough defenses get to them like Georgia and Texas. Against Michigan, it may be a nightmare on offense for Jalen Milroe and company.
Ultimately in this Rose Bowl, I think Saban and Jim Harbaugh play a polite game of chess, limiting their opponent's movements and playing sound defense first.
Give me a boring, low scoring Rose Bowl, and let's watch either team win this game 23-21.
As always, line shop as this is still available at Under 45 across multiple books at the time of writing.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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