Arizona State vs. Duke Picks and Predictions: Sun Bowl Bets
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Wed Dec 31, 2025, 11:03 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Two types of Devils meet in El Paso, Texas for the Tony the Tiger Sun Bowl on New Year's Eve. Perhaps Arizona State has the advantage as the bowl is named after the school's Sun Devil mascot (don't fact check me). Nevertheless, the ACC Champion Duke Blue Devils bring their team into the Lone Star State to take down this Big 12 foe. Can Darian Mensah end this year on a high note before he regroups for next season? Or can Kenny Dillingham lead some back ups to victory? Find out with our favorite picks below.
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Best Bet: Arizona State/Duke Under 48.5 (-105) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Go check out what else I've got on the slate for bowl season, and view the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.
Arizona State Sun Devils vs. Duke Blue Devils Sun Bowl Insights
Darian Mensah will be returning to Duke next season
Arizona State will be without quarterback Sam Leavitt, who will probably be the number one overall player in the portal, definitely the top QB. Jeff Sims will get the start, but Dillingham has noted that freshman Cam Dyer will also get some snaps during the bowl game. They will be missing stud wide out Jordyn Tyson as well, who is on his way to playing on Sundays. Several defensive players have declared for the draft, but will likely play, including safety Myles Rowser, defensive lineman Justin Wodtly and linebacker Jordan Crook.
As for Duke, Mensah is the key piece, and he will be playing. However, the Blue Devils will be missing starting right tackle Brian Parker II, cornerback Chandler Rivers and defensive end Vincent Anthony Jr. Head coach Manny Diaz says everyone else should be good to go.
Matchup Information – Arizona State vs. Duke – December 31
- Venue & Location: Sun Bowl (El Paso, TX)
- Date: Wednesday, December 31, 2025
- Kick Off: 2:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: CBS
Arizona State vs. Duke Betting Odds
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Spread
- Arizona State +3 (-102)
- Duke -3 (-119)
Moneyline
- Arizona State +137
- Duke -168
Total
- Over 48.5 (-115)
- Under 48.5 (-105)
Arizona State lost just four games all year, three in the Big 12 and one to Mississippi State in non conference play. They ended going 2-1 against ranked teams, beating Texas Tech (with their backup QB) and TCU, while losing to Arizona in their regular season finale.
Duke had some forgivable losses as well, but they probably are wishing they had their matchup against UConn back. They got their revenge on Virginia in the conference championship, but failed to break into the field of 12. Can they end their season with a fourth straight win in this bowl game?
Arizona State vs. Duke Sun Bowl Picks and Predictions
Kenny Dillingham is looking for his first bowl win as a head coach
Arizona State vs. Duke Prediction: Duke Wins, Arizona State Covers, Under 48.5
Best Bet: Arizona State/Duke Under 48.5 (-105) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Jeff Sims has started the last few games for the Sun Devils anyways, so we know what to expect of their offense with him under center. He's won them games, but hasn't really wowed me at all, as their defense has done the bulk of the work. The Sun Devils' secondary will be tested against Mensah's arm, but I think they can contain him, despite ranking north of 100 in interceptions forced. They are top 30 at getting to the quarterback.
Offensively, the Sun Devils are north of 100 in third down conversions, points per play and red zone scoring percentage, which doesn't give me much faith in this total. I looked at Duke's team total under 26.5 (which is still a good bet), but I'm not sure Arizona State will contribute much, so we pivoted to the full game. The Sun Devils have held their opponents under 27 points in 11/12 games this year. Like I said, their defense got them all those wins.
While trusting the Duke defense to do their job might be a little scary, I see the winner of this game scoring 24 points at most.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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