#18 Michigan vs. #13 Texas Picks and Predictions: Cheez-It Citrus Bowl
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Wed Dec 31, 2025, 11:01 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Once again, the two best conferences in college football meet for some postseason action tonight. Two teams who barely missed out on a spot in the College Football Playoff go head to head in Orlando as the No. 18 Michigan Wolverines take on the No. 13 Texas Longhorns. Both 9-3 teams came up just short this regular season, but have the chance to end their season with a New Year's Eve bowl win. Let's find out who gets the job done with our favorite picks!
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Best Bet: Michigan/Texas Under 48.5 (-112) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Go check out what else I've got on the slate for bowl season, and view the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.
#18 Michigan Wolverines vs. #13 Texas Longhorns Citrus Bowl Insights
Bryce Underwood and the Wolverines take on the Longhorns in the Citrus Bowl this afternoon
Sure, there are lots of extra curricular activities surrounding the Michigan football program. We don't need to get into too many specifics, but former Charlotte head coach Biff Poggi has taken over the head coaching duties during this bowl game before Kyle Whittingham takes over next year. They will also be without their offensive coordinator who took the same job at Missouri. Bryce Underwood will start and return to Michigan next year, but he will be without his top two running backs in Justice Haynes and Jordan Marshall, who are both out with injuries.
Texas will also be missing tons in the running back room, especially Quintrevion Wisner who is expected to transfer. The Longhorns will be without seven of their starting defenders, but I still think the next men up could make a statement in this contest. So could Arch Manning going into next year.
It should be very entertaining watching these two young QBs go back and forth today in Orlando.
Matchup Information – Michigan vs. Texas – December 31
- Venue & Location: Camping World Stadium (Orlando, FL)
- Date: Wednesday, December 31, 2025
- Kick Off: 3:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: ABC
Michigan vs. Texas Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel Sportsbook, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of December 31, 2025 at 9:33 a.m. eastern. Sign up today and get a $1,250 deposit bonus & 50 slot spins right away. Lucky Rebel offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
Spread
- Michigan +7 (-102)
- Texas -7 (-119)
Moneyline
- Michigan +235
- Texas -305
Total
- Over 48.5 (-108)
- Under 48.5 (-112)
Despite the missing personnel for Texas, they still have a great defense, and I expect them to show up in this contest. I have very little faith in either offense, but both defensive units get me going.
#18 Michigan vs. #13 Texas Citrus Bowl Picks and Predictions
Can Arch Manning lead Texas to a bowl win over Michigan?
Michigan vs. Texas Prediction: Texas Wins, Michigan Covers, Under 48.5
Best Bet: Michigan/Texas Under 48.5 (-112) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
The Wolverines run the ball nearly 60% of the time, putting them in the top 20 in rush play percentage. They do so very efficiently, ranking top eight in yards per rush and top 12 in rushing yards per game. The passing game is where they have some trouble. Texas is sort of the opposite, as they are north of 90 in yards per rush, but they don't pass the ball all that great either.
Texas is outside the top 60 in third down conversions and red zone scoring percentage, while the Wolverines are top 20 in moving the chains, they are north of 100 in red zone scoring. And the defenses are very good.
Michigan is top 15 in both yards and points allowed per play. The trench unit is great, the secondary could use a little work, but they'll make Arch Manning earn everything today, coming in ranked in the top 30 in interceptions forced. The Longhorns are top 20 in yards and points allowed per play and No. 22 in third down conversions allowed. Michigan should struggle on the ground without their top two backs, and I don't trust Underwood's arm to light it up.
Defense wins this low scoring bowl game.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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