The Musketeers are coming off an impressive and emotional 18 point comeback win over DePaul at home on Saturday. Now they have to pack it up and head to Hartford to take on the third ranked team in the country, who is coming off dismantling Creighton 85 to 58 in their last game. Will Xavier have enough in the tank to keep up with UConn, or are the Huskies starting to find their groove again?
I think this is a UConn or nothing spot. I want no part of trusting the Musketeers after their wild comeback on Saturday. Meanwhile, UConn is coming off covering their first spread of the new year. Prior to Saturday's win over the Bluejays, the Huskies had not covered a spread since their first meeting against Xavier, when they won 90 to 67, covering the 12.5 points. Now, over a month later and back at home, the Huskies find themselves as a 17.5-point favorite.
I love this spot for UConn, even with a potential look ahead to Friday against No. 22 St. John's. Dan Hurley and his boys should be eyeing the season sweep over the Musketeers.
Hungry Home Dogs
Through 12 home games this season, the Huskies own a top ten defense and a top 60 offense. Overall, they have excelled at defending the interior, where they are ranked ninth in the country. They are also very efficient on the glass, especially on the offensive boards. They do foul quite a bit, but Hurley has said he can live with that if his boys are staying aggressive defensively, which I love.
According to Haslametrics, Xavier has played its best basketball away from home, ranking 61st in road performance. However, the Musketeers are 1-5 in true road games. That lone win came against Georgetown, who are blessed to just be alive. Xavier has major concerns when it comes to getting to the line, sending opponents to the line, and rebounding, as they rank in the bottom 100 in all three categories. Those are not the only issues either, as this team turns the ball over at a decent rate and does not defend the three well.
Despite the larger spread, the Huskies will look to slow this game down. On the season, UConn is ranked 321st in pace, while Xavier is the 24th fastest team in the country. Against slower teams on the road, the Musketeers have struggled. Seton Hall beat them 86 to 68, and Iowa handled them 81 to 62. They did lose by just one against Creighton, so credit where it is due.
However, the Huskies have been playing with their food for over a month, scraping by opponents instead of putting them away. That needs to change. Look for Hurley and his boys to lock in and show no mercy tonight.
