Coming off their biggest win of the season over No. 3 UConn, No. 22 St. John's looks to keep it rolling tonight at Madison Square Garden against the Xavier Musketeers. Xavier has been struggling over its last five games, owning a 1-4 record during that stretch. This marks the second meeting between these two teams this season. The first came back on January 24th, when the Red Storm barely scraped by with an 88 to 83 win as a 7.5-point road favorite. Now, St. John's finds itself as a 15.5-point home favorite in the rematch. Is that too many points for a team coming off its biggest win of the year, or is the line telling us the Musketeers are due to get steamrolled? I found a safer play. Let us get into it.
Team Prop Bets
After that big win on Friday, I do not think the Red Storm will be as engaged. However, I do love their team total over 87.5. Both teams are ranked inside the top 75 in pace. St. John's is ranked 29th at home this season, while Xavier is 26th in true road games. Both teams will be zipping up and down the floor, creating a ton of possessions. Away from home, the Musketeers are allowing over 80 points per game, with four of their last five opponents scoring at least 86 points. Most of those teams do not even come close to the pace at which St. John's plays. The Johnnies at home this season are averaging around 86 points per game.
The Musketeers have been horrific defensively away from home this season. Through seven games, they rank in the bottom 100 in defensive rebounding, free throw rate defense, and three-point percentage defense. Sure, the Red Storm are not elite from deep, but any advantage matters. On top of that, since St. John's attacks the rim at a high rate, Xavier ranks 201st in two point percentage defense on the road.
Over the past couple of games, I have liked what I have seen from St. John's. In 2026, they are undefeated and playing some of their best basketball of the season. This is their 16th game against a top 100 opponent. Through the prior 15 games, the Red Storm rank 19th in adjusted offensive efficiency, excelling at getting to the line, crashing the glass for second chance points, and surprisingly, being efficient from deep. They are still 298th in three point rate, but shooting above 36 percent is very impressive for this team. Defensively, the Johnnies also rank inside the top 45 in forcing turnovers. If they can turn those into points, pushing toward 90 points should be a breeze.
