One of the most intriguing matchups of the day, this is a game where it will feel like a Super Bowl victory if either team scores 70 points. The West Virginia Mountaineers head to Houston to take on No. 7 Cougars after knocking off Kansas in their previous game. Houston, on the other hand, is riding a winning streak that dates back to Thanksgiving. Can Ross Hodge and his group shock the nation again, or will Kelvin Sampson and his group completely dominate the Mountaineers? I smell an under.
I am not in love with taking a now 14-point spread when this game is going to be slower than your parents getting down the stairs on Christmas morning. Points will be at an all time premium, as these two teams rank inside the bottom 30 in pace. West Virginia is the fourth slowest team in the country, while Houston ranks 28th. Both teams play suffocating defense, which is why I love the under, but not just any under. I am targeting the Mountaineers team total under 57.5. With West Virginia coming off their biggest win of the season, this is the best way to fade them.
Land Down Under
This game marks the Mountaineers second true road game of the season. Their first came back on January second in Ames, where they lost 80 to 59 against the Cyclones. The Cougars rank first in points allowed per game, giving up just 60 on average. At home, they are even better, holding teams to only 51.9 points per game. Interestingly, West Virginia sits right behind them in points allowed at home. Haslametrics grades West Virginia as the fourth worst team away from home, while Houston ranks 145th at home.
The Cougars at home this season own the number one defense in the country. They have held six of their eight opponents under 57.5 points. They also rank inside the top 25 in effective field goal percentage defense, turnover rate at 1st overall, and two-point percentage defense.
In West Virginia's five games away from home, they are not only 0 and 5 straight up, but they have struggled to take care of the basketball, attack the glass, and avoid having their shots blocked. This offense has played up to its competition at times, but it has not faced a team even close to this Houston unit. Iowa State was the toughest test they have seen all season, and they were held to 59 points in that matchup. For reference, Iowa State ranks 98th at home in tempo, which is 235 spots faster than the pace Houston will be running. The Mountaineers offense is going to be completely suffocated tonight.
