Virginia vs North Carolina Basketball Prediction & Picks

Last Update: Sat Feb 25, 2023, 1:20 pm ET

Read Time: 3 minutes

Virginia vs North Carolina Basketball Prediction & Picks cover

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After eking out a victory in a must-win game at Notre Dame on Wednesday, North Carolina will look to bag an even more significant win tonight when they host Virginia (6:00 pm ET, ESPN).

It was far closer than they would have liked, but the Tar Heels (17-11, 9-8 ACC) saw off the Irish 63-59, led by Armando Bacot's 16 points and 11 rebounds.

UNC still appears to be out of the March Madness field currently, but a win over Virginia (21-5, 13-4 ACC) would give them a major boost in their quest to make the cut.

The Cavaliers, meanwhile, are looking to rebound from 15-point loss at Boston College on Wednesday, which knocked them off of the top of the ACC standings.

Who will take the win in Chapel Hill? Read on for our Virginia vs North Carolina basketball prediction, as well as our picks and analysis for tonight's matchup at the Dean Dome.

We'll be covering only a few games on today's massive college basketball slate, but we recommend checking out Doc's Sports if you are looking for more college basketball picks.

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Virginia vs North Carolina Odds

Odds are via BetOnline as of Saturday, February 25, 2023, at 1:15 pm ET.

Spread

Virginia +4.5 (-110)
North Carolina -4.5 (-110)

Over/Under

Over 131.5 (-115)
Under 131.5 (-105)

Moneyline

Virginia +164
North Carolina -200

Road Trends Read Unfavorably for Virginia

Even with the loss at BC, the Cavaliers still have a winning record on the road in ACC play.

But there's not a whole lot to really positively highlight in that 5-4 road record, which accounts for all of Virginia's ACC losses thus far this season.

The most notable road win that they have in conference play is at Wake Forest, who entered today at #80 in the NET, and they are 2-6-1 ATS on the road in ACC action.

The only encouraging thing for Virginia going into this game is the fact that North Carolina has struggled to beat teams who may make the field of 68. In games against teams who would be dancing if the tournament started today, the Tar Heels are 1-9 SU and 1-8-1 ATS.

To date, UNC's only win so far over a team that will definitely be in the tournament without the aid of an automatic bid is NC State, who they beat by 11 in Chapel Hill last month.

Virginia vs North Carolina Prediction and Picks

Cavaliers vs Tar Heels Prediction: North Carolina to win

Cavaliers vs Tar Heels Picks: North Carolina -4 (Bovada Sportsbook) & Virginia/North Carolina under 132 (Bovada Sportsbook & BetUS)

I generally don't have a lot of positive comments about either of these teams. The Tar Heels have underachieved mightily, and as highly as the Cavaliers are ranked, I don't see them getting past the Sweet Sixteen this year, if they even make it that far.

But UNC is running out of chances to show that they deserve a place in the NCAA Tournament, and if there is a point where urgency brings out the form that has been lacking most of the season, that point is now.