The Maui Invitational is officially here, and Monday evening delivers a must-watch college basketball showdown. The USC Trojans take on the Boise State Broncos in a clash that could easily come down to the final possession. Both teams are coming off wins, but they bring very different styles to the floor, USC likes to push the pace and score in bunches, while Boise State will look to slow the game down and control every rebound. This matchup has everything you want early in the season: talented rosters, contrasting strategies, and potential chaos. Expect a tight game, plenty of scoring runs, and key moments that could swing the outcome.
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Last 7 Days: 7-12 (-2.9 Units)
2025-26 Season: 23-25 (-0.25 Units)
Early season woes. Auto fade me? You won't.
USC vs. Boise State Odds
Will Boise State be able to keep it close against USC?
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Spread
USC: -6.5 (-102)
Boise State: +6.5 (-120)
Total
Over: 150.5 (-110)
Under: 150.5 (-110)
Moneyline
USC: -295
Boise State: +235
USC vs. Boise State Best Bet
Welcome to the Maui Invitational, one of the best tournaments to enjoy early in the college basketball season. Monday evening, the USC Trojans take on the Boise State Broncos. Both teams are riding high off a win in their previous matchup. This should be a very intriguing game from start to finish. I have a ton of thoughts, so let us dive in.
My Bounce Back Spot
This matchup is my personal get-right spot after losing my USC -18.5 bet on Thursday, when I was trying to fade Troy entering their fourth straight West Coast game of the week. Instead of showing signs of fatigue, Troy somehow went toe-to-toe with USC and forced three overtimes. In the end, USC hit a buzzer beater three to came out on top 107-106. Monday evening, we will be fading USC and taking the underdog Broncos at the opening number of +6.5.
The number could rise or creep down. I am not going to wait around on this one. I think it is already too high and shows too much respect for the Trojans, who may have been just looking ahead to this game on Thursday.
Trust the Broncos
Boise State is still a very talented team. They have a top 75 offense that shoots the deep ball at a high rate, currently 34th in three-point percentage. The Broncos also get to the line often, ranked 30th in the country, while shooting 75% from the free throw line. On the defensive side, they excel at rebounding, ranked 31st in defensive boards. USC does not rely heavily on threes, and they should look to attack the basket Monday evening, as Boise State is 54th in three-point defense.
The Broncos will be one of the slower teams the Trojans have faced this season. They will try to slow the game down, while USC will push the pace. If Boise State can control the tempo and make every possession count, I think this game will stay close. Getting second-chance points will be crucial, as USC ranks 303rd in defensive rebounding this season. Against Troy, USC was out-rebounded 56 to 35. Troy currently ranks 222nd in defensive rebounding and 174th in offensive. The Broncos are far better at crashing the boards, which should be a key to covering the +6.5. Win the rebound battle, and Boise State could come out on top.
All the advanced metrics have this game staying within 3 points, so if you want to wait and see how the market reacts, that is reasonable. However, I think 6.5 is too many points for a Boise State team that has had nearly a week off to prepare. I fully expect the Broncos to be ready to take on the Trojans.
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