Tonight's Super Tuesday slate features a thrilling matchup as No. 9 Michigan State hosts Toledo in East Lansing. The Spartans are coming off a close call at Penn State, while the Rockets are looking to bounce back from a tough road loss at Robert Morris. Will Tom Izzo's squad be ready to lock down Toledo, or will the Rockets snap their losing streak? It is a game full of intrigue and value, so let us dive into the details and see what's at stake for both teams tonight.
Toledo vs. #9 Michigan State: Odds & Insights | December 16, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Published: Tue Dec 16, 2025, 2:57 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
ncaab
FINAL
Toledo Rockets
69
Michigan State Spartans
92
Write Up Transparency
Be sure to follow me on X/Twitter @C_marchio2 to get my full card every day! Picks are always FREE.
Last 7 Days: 9-8 (-0.36 Units)
Last 30 Days: 43-30 (+13.02 Units)
Toledo vs. #9 Michigan State Odds
How will the Spartans respond after a close call at Penn State?
You can find all of these great College Basketball odds on Lucky Rebel. Get a $1,250 deposit bonus & 50 Slot Spins when you sign up!
Spread
Toledo: +23.5 (-115)
Michigan State: -23.5 (-105)
Total
Over: 151.5 (-105)
Under: 151.5 (-115)
Moneyline
Toledo: +2000
Michigan State: -8000
Toledo vs. #9 Michigan State Best Bet
The Super Tuesday slate is, well, super this evening. We head to East Lansing, where No. 9 Michigan State hosts Toledo after coming off a close call at Penn State this past Saturday. Meanwhile, the Rockets suffered a brutal road loss against Robert Morris. Will Tom Izzo and his group come ready to take on the Rockets, or will Toledo be prepared to bounce back after losing back to back? I have thoughts, but only in the first half.
The Best Sweat
There is no better rush than a first half team total bet. The true get in and get out wager of college basketball. This evening, the Toledo first half team total under 28.5 points at even money has my full attention. Michigan State is coming off sleepwalking through a road game at Penn State, yet still finding a way to come out on top. The Rockets are coming off blowing an 18-point first half lead at Robert Morris, where they ultimately lost 75 to 70.
Toledo has been very solid at putting points on the board early, averaging 37 points per first half. This has come while playing the 163rd toughest schedule to start the season. On the other side, Michigan State has navigated the 15th toughest schedule. The Spartans are allowing just 29 points per first half this season, which ranks 13th in the nation.
The best team Toledo has faced this season was Belmont, who Bart Torvik has ranked 90th. In that matchup, the Rockets scored 33 first half points. Belmont owns the 108th ranked defense in the country, while Michigan State owns the third. On top of that, Michigan State is not going to allow this game to be played at the same pace Belmont did. The Spartans rank 300th in tempo this season, and points should be at a premium.
Michigan State excels on the glass, protects the rim, and defends both inside and out. They rank inside the top 55 in rebounding, shot blocking, interior defense, and perimeter defense, with three of those categories sitting inside the top 25. Toledo does bring a top 110 offense that shoots free throws at a strong rate. However, Michigan State ranks nearly top 75 in free throw rate defense, so trips to the line should be limited.
There is always an argument about whether the Spartans will care about this matchup, but coming off a near loss, I fully expect Tom Izzo to have his group locked in and ready to put the clamps on this MAC opponent. At plus money, this sets up as a fun sweat.
Best Bet: Toledo First Half Team Total Under 28.5 (Even) on Lucky Rebel
More NCAAB News
NCAAB Betting News
NCAA Expands March Madness Tournament to 76 Teams Beginning in 2027
NCAAB Betting News
NCAA Basketball Transfer Portal Update: Portal Entries and New Signings
NCAAB Betting News
NCAA Basketball Coaching Changes: Where Are They Now?
NCAAB Betting News
#2 UConn vs. #1 Michigan Picks and Predictions: National Championship
Interested in More Content
Follow me on X @C_marchio2 for all of my picks and sports opinions!
Be sure to check out all things Betting News on X and Twitch!
While you are at it go get some merch at our Betting News Store!
In need of a sportsbook? Check out one of our favorites below and sign-up for a bonus!
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Check Out All of Our Resources at Betting News
Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Betting News makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.