Texas vs. UCLA Women’s Final Four Prediction & Picks: Will the Longhorns Get the Best of the Bruins Again?

Perhaps the most consequential women's college basketball result occurred the day before Thanksgiving, when then-No. 4 Texas emerged victorious vs. then-No. 3 UCLA in the semifinals of the Players Era Festival semifinals.

While the Longhorns went on to win the title with a 66-64 win in an all-SEC showdown with South Carolina, the Bruins were left to take on Duke in a consolation contest.

Had UCLA defeated both Texas and South Carolina, it's not unreasonable to assume that the 35-1 Bruins would have received the top overall seed for the NCAA tournament. Instead, that nod went to UConn, and that put Texas and UCLA on a collision course for a March Madness matchup in Phoenix.

After breezing through their respective regionals, the Longhorns and Bruins are set to meet again, this time with a spot in Sunday's championship game against the South Carolina vs. UConn winner.

After losing to South Carolina in the national semifinals in its Final Four debut last season, UCLA is once again after its first national title game appearance in the Division I era of women's college basketball.

Texas, who lost to UConn in last year's other national semifinal, is seeking its first championship game appearance since 1986. That year, the Longhorns became the first undefeated national champion in the Division I era, going wire-to-wire as No. 1 and capping a 34-0 season with a 97-81 win over USC in Lexington, Kentucky.

The winner of this matchup could have a chance to keep UConn from becoming the latest undefeated champ, but who will take on either the Huskies or Gamecocks? At Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, Texas is favored by a small margin.

Texas vs. UCLA TLDR

The Bruins have been great this season, but the Longhorns already know what it takes to beat them and will do it again tonight to advance to the title game.

Texas vs. UCLA Matchup Information

• Matchup: Texas (Fort Worth 3 Regional #1) vs. UCLA (Sacramento 2 Regional #1) – 2026 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Tournament National Semifinal #1
• Location (Venue): Phoenix, Arizona (Mortgage Matchup Center)
• Date: Friday, April 3, 2026
• Time: 9:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Texas vs. UCLA Odds and Probabilities

Odds are from Lucky Rebel as of Friday, April 3, 2026, at 7:30 p.m. ET.

Tale of the Tape: Texas vs. UCLA

Texas vs. UCLA Prediction and Analysis

When the Longhorns and Bruins met in November, Texas was in control for much of the game, before UCLA went on a 22-3 run to trim a 23-point deficit to four inside the final five minutes.

That was as tense as things would get, however. The Horns closed by scoring 12 of the game's final 17 points and not allowing a field goal over the final 4:31.

Texas owns wins this season over UCLA, South Carolina (twice in three meetings), and LSU, signature victories in an outstanding resume. Overall, the Longhorns are 16-3 against ranked foes this season, including NCAA tournament wins over Kentucky and Michigan in Fort Worth.

To date, the biggest reason the Longhorns have been unable to get over the hump despite significant success in the Vic Schaefer era is failing to generate enough offense in every NCAA tournament loss suffered in his tenure. That includes being unable to keep up with hot-shooting NC State in the Elite Eight two years ago.

Last year, the Longhorns averaged a respectable 77.8 PPG but shot 46.1% overall from the field, and the season ended with 57 points in a 17-point loss to South Carolina in the Final Four.

Entering tonight's game vs. UCLA, Texas is averaging 85.0 PPG and shooting 50.2% overall from the field. Even in their losses this season, the Horns have not been held below 65 points, and they have not scored fewer than 64 points in any game.

As good as UCLA has been this season, the leap that Texas has made is impossible to overlook, especially given the head-to-head result against the Bruins. It will be tough to repeat the dominance shown in that previous matchup, but I expect a similar outcome in this rematch.

Picks for Texas vs. UCLA

Texas -2.5 (-109 at Lucky Rebel)

Texas Team Total Over 67.5 (-128 at Lucky Rebel)

Bet on Women's March Madness at Lucky Rebel

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