#11 Texas vs. #3 Gonzaga Prediction & Picks (West Region Round of 32): Can the Horns Hook Another Favorite?
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Published: Fri Mar 20, 2026, 10:11 pm ET
Read Time: 7 minutes
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If Texas is to achieve rare March air, they will have to record a result vs. Gonzaga that is not a common occurrence on either side of this West Region matchup.
On one side of tomorrow's first Round of 32 showdown in Portland is a program that is a fixture in the second week of March Madness for the last decade-plus. On the other side is a program that has been to the second week just once in nearly two decades.
Gonzaga is looking to return to the Sweet Sixteen for the ninth time in 10 tournament appearances and start a new streak after an eight-tournament run ended with a loss to Houston in this round last year.
Texas, meanwhile, is looking to reach the second week for the first time since 2023, when they were upset by Final Four first-timers Miami in the Elite Eight. That regional final trip is the Longhorns' lone appearance in the second week since 2008.
Prior to the tournament, this year's Texas team looked unlikely to make much noise. But after dispatching a Wolfpack in the First Four and a clowder of Cougars in the first round, the Longhorns are looking to take down a pack of Bulldogs in the second round.
The winner of the Texas vs. Gonzaga matchup will move on to meet either second-seeded Purdue or 7-seed Miami (FL) in San Jose next week.
While former Arizona coach Sean Miller may be eyeing an eventual regional final against his former employer and Gonzaga coach Mark Few may be pondering the possibility of a reunion with longtime assistant Tommy Lloyd, which one will move one step closer to it? At Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, Gonzaga is a firm favorite, even after a tougher than expected tournament opener.
Texas vs. Gonzaga TLDR
Don't be fooled by the Longhorns' wins over NC State and BYU or Gonzaga's single-digit win over Kennesaw State. Take the Zags to cover against a team whose flaws will undo them one last time this season.
Texas vs. Gonzaga Matchup Information
- Matchup: #11 Texas vs. #3 Gonzaga (2026 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament West Region Second Round)
- Location (Venue): Portland, Oregon (Moda Center)
- Time: 7:10 p.m. ET
- TV: truTV/TBS
Texas vs. Gonzaga Odds
Odds are from Lucky Rebel.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total | Implied Win % | True Win % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Texas | +6.5 (-115) | +200 | Over 147.5 (-110) | 33.3% | 36% |
| Gonzaga | -6.5 (-106) | -255 | Under 147.5 (-110) | 71.8% | 64% |
Tale of the Tape: Texas vs. Gonzaga
| Category | Texas (20-14) | Gonzaga (31-3) |
|---|---|---|
| Points Per Game | 78.5 | 84.8 |
| Points Allowed Per Game | 72.6 | 65.9 |
| Field Goal % | 46.3% | 50.7% |
| Field Goal Defense | 42.7% | 39.4% |
| 3-Point % | 36.2% | 33.5% |
| 3-Point Defense | 33.8% | 30.5% |
| Free Throw % | 74.9% | 70.5% |
| Adj. Offensive Efficiency (KenPom) | 16th | 31st |
| Adj. Defensive Efficiency (KenPom) | 85th | 9th |
| Tempo | 212th | 114th |
Texas vs. Gonzaga Prediction and Analysis
Has the switch flipped for Texas at just the right time?
The Longhorns entered the tournament having lost five of six, including a double-digit loss to 12-win Ole Miss in the SEC tournament. As a result, they dropped to the First Four, and had a little more conference tournament chaos occurred, they would have dropped out of the field of 68 completely.
In a late-game implosion against NC State, the Horns showed why they were in the First Four and were fortunate to be bailed out by the Wolfpack missing a chance to take a late lead from the foul line and Tramon Mark promptly nailing a game-winning jumper.
Top Players for Texas
- Dailyn Swain: 17.6 PPG, 7.5 RPG, 3.5 APG
- Matas Vokietaitis: 15.7 PPG, 7.1 RPG
- Tramon Mark: 13.8 PPG, 3.5 RPG
- Jordan Pope: 13.0 PPG, 2.1 RPG
Perhaps being granted new life stirred something in Texas, based on Thursday's 79-71 win over sixth-seeded BYU. In fact, the victory was even more impressive than the scoreline indicates, as the Longhorns trailed just once all game.
But this feels more like circumstances lining up well rather than some renaissance for Texas heading into its matchup vs. Gonzaga.
NC State had an even bigger late-season collapse than the Longhorns, dropping eight of 10 to end the season after starting 18-6 overall and 9-2 in the ACC.
BYU, meanwhile, was not the same team after losing Richie Saunders for the season, even with Dybantsa doing everything he could to keep the Cougars afloat.
Yet Texas had trouble closing out both teams, enabling NC State to tie it after trailing by nine inside the final three minutes and BYU to pull within four late after trailing by 17 with 11 minutes left.
Gonzaga is not a team without its own concerns. The continued absence of Braden Huff (17.8 PPG, 5.6 RPG) leaves a significant hole in the rotation. The Bulldogs don't shoot the three as well as many other Mark Few teams have. And they rank outside the top 250 nationally at the free-throw line, even after making 20 of 23 against Kennesaw State.
Top Players for Gonzaga
- Graham Ike: 19.7 PPG, 8.2 RPG, 2.3 APG
- Tyon Grant-Foster: 11.2 PPG, 5.0 RPG
- Davis Fogle: 8.7 PPG, 3.1 RPG
- Mario Saint-Supery: 8.6 PPG, 3.8 APG, 2.8 RPG
The Zags also had a tougher time than anyone would have expected against the Owls, who led for much of the first half and trailed by only five with a little over two minutes left.
But there's a reason why Gonzaga, despite roster turnover, injuries, and an ever-evolving college basketball landscape, has been such a consistent winner and had reached the Sweet Sixteen or better in eight consecutive tournaments before last year's early exit.
When it matters, they do the little things well. Like being a poor free-throw shooting team all season but making 87.5 of your foul shots against a pesky 14-seed. Against a team that hasn't done those little things well on a consistent basis this season, that trait will prove decisive.
Texas vs. Gonzaga Pick
Gonzaga -6.5 (-106 at Lucky Rebel)
Texas actually has a solid 10-5 ATS record as an underdog this season, and Bart Torvik's projections for Saturday slide just inside the right side of the spread in that regard (a 79-73 Gonzaga win). But it feels like this team has ridden its good fortune as far as it can.
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