#16 Texas Tech vs. #4 Iowa State Picks and Predictions: Big 12 Hoops
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Sat Feb 28, 2026, 3:01 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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The Texas Tech Red Raiders head to Ames, Iowa without JT Toppin to try and take down the Iowa State Cyclones, and let me tell you, it's going to be tough. Hilton Coliseum is nearly impossible to go into and get a win, and it's been proven this season, as the Cyclones are a perfect 15-0 in that building. They opened up as 7.5 point favorites, but have quickly steamed up to 9.5 where this line currently sits. Can the Red Raiders do the impossible without their best player? I doubt it, but let's take a look at my favorite picks in this contest.
Best Bet: Texas Tech Team Total Under 68.5 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
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#16 Texas Tech Red Raiders vs. #4 Iowa State Cyclones NCAA Basketball Insights
Without JT Toppin, the Red Raiders are severely limited on offense
Although they are unbeaten at home, the Cyclones have had some close calls. They barely beat Houston after trailing for almost the entire game, and squeaked by the Iowa Hawkeyes and Baylor Bears in their trips to Ames as well. But Texas Tech is a different team without Toppin, and they rely very heavily on Christian Anderson to step up and do everything for the team. Life will be tough for him against the Iowa State defenders.
TJ Otzelberger's team prides themselves on defense, and I see them using that side of the ball to dominate this game. They aren't completely invincible, as they've lost to BYU and TCU recently on the road, but they are still 8-2 in their last 10 games. However, they do have to go to Tucson and take on the best team in the conference on Monday. Will Grant McCasland's team be able to keep this competitive on the road with the Cyclones possibly looking ahead?
Matchup Information – Texas Tech vs. Iowa State – February 28
- Venue & Location: Hilton Coliseum (Ames, IA)
- Date: Saturday, February 28, 2026
- Kick Off: 4:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: CBS
Texas Tech vs. Iowa State Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of February 27, 2026 at 3:34 p.m. eastern. Sign up today with and get a $1,250 deposit bonus, as well as 50 slot spins immediately. Lucky Rebel Sportsbook offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
Spread
- Texas Tech +9.5 (-110)
- Iowa State -9.5 (-110)
Moneyline
- Texas Tech +400
- Iowa State -550
Total
- Over 145.5 (-110)
- Under 145.5 (-110)
#16 Texas Tech vs. #4 Iowa State NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions
Joshua Jefferson and the Cyclones defense will come to play at home against Texas Tech
Texas Tech vs. Iowa State Prediction: Iowa State Wins and Covers, Under 145.5
Best Bet: Texas Tech Team Total Under 68.5 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Much like my bet in Arizona vs. Kansas, this market is not open quite yet. However, I will be on the Red Raiders team total under, assuming it is around this number. If it dropped all the way to 65.5, I might have to do some more thinking, but anything above 67.5 would be a play in my book.
The Iowa State Cyclones have opposing guards seeing ghosts when they are inside Hilton Coliseum. Darryn Peterson and Melvin Council looked lost. Kingston Flemings and Milos Uzan were incredibly flustered all game long and couldn't perform during the final few minutes. The same will be the case for Anderson and Donovan Atwell. Without Toppin, this offense is completely limited, and Iowa State should matchup well against both the front and back court for the Red Raiders.
Ultimately, the Cyclones are top 10 in the country in scoring defense overall and points per game allowed at home, giving up just 61.3 points to their opponents. Texas Tech relies very heavily on their shots from downtown to produce points, and the Cyclones held both the Jayhawks and Cougars to less than 35% shooting from deep. I expect the same to happen against the Red Raiders, resulting in them staying below this team total mark.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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