#9 TCU vs. #1 Duke Picks and Predictions: Round of 32
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Fri Mar 20, 2026, 2:25 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Both of these teams had super close calls in the Round of 64. The No. 9 TCU Horned Frogs started off the tournament by almost melting away a 15 point halftime lead against Ohio State, but ended up with a win. As for the No. 1 overall seeded Duke Blue Devils, the Siena Saints gave them a huge scare. Duke was down for most of the game before remembering who they were later, eventually pulling off a six point win. Now the two meet with a chance at playing in the second weekend on the line. Check out our favorite picks to see if Jamie Dixon or Jon Scheyer's team will move on.
Check out our March Madness Betting Guide to get in on all the action this month!
Best Bet: TCU/Duke Under 139.5 (-105) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Go check out what else I've got on my daily card, and view the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.
#9 TCU Horned Frogs vs. #1 Duke Blue Devils NCAA Basketball Insights
Duke had a big scare against Siena. Will they come focused against TCU in the Round of 32?
Duke very clearly missed the veteran presence of Caleb Foster. The junior guard doesn't light up a stat sheet, but he plays his role well, and is much more sound than Cayden Boozer who filled in for him yesterday. They also missed center Patrick Ngongba, who is likely going to be a lottery pick in the NBA Draft. Both will be out in this game against TCU, which certainly helps this frisky Horned Frogs team.
TCU has been very hot recently. They won five straight to end the regular season, and have now won 12 of their last 16 since breaking their four game losing streak. Believe it or not, I think this team is very well equipped to take down a shorthanded Blue Devils team, especially after what we saw yesterday from Siena. The Saints almost did it with just five guys! The Horned Frogs should be more than capable of making this a competitive game.
Matchup Information – TCU vs. Duke – March 21
- Venue & Location: Bon Secours Wellness Arena (Greenville, SC)
- Date: Saturday, March 21, 2026
- Kick Off: 5:15 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: CBS
TCU vs. Duke Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of March 20, 2026 at 1:57 p.m. eastern. Sign up today with and get a $1,250 deposit bonus, as well as 50 slot spins immediately. Lucky Rebel Sportsbook offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
Spread
- TCU +11.5 (-109)
- Duke -11.5 (-111)
Moneyline
- TCU +543
- Duke -770
Total
- Over 139.5 (-115)
- Under 139.5 (-105)
#9 TCU vs. #1 Duke NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions
Can the Horned Frogs keep it close against the Blue Devils?
TCU vs. Duke Prediction: Duke Wins, TCU Covers, Under 139.5
Best Bet: TCU/Duke Under 139.5 (-105) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
I love TCU catching double digits in this game, but mainly because I think we see it stay under the total. Against the Buckeyes, TCU knew they were outmatched on offense. Their best chance at moving on, which they did, was keeping it low scoring and limiting their opponent's offensive opportunities. Jamie Dixon will use that exact same game plan against the Blue Devils in the Round of 32.
Without Ngongba, Duke doesn't have much of an inside scoring presence besides Cameron Boozer. Maliq Brown puts up just 4.9 points per game and isn't much of a threat. Ultimately, I believe guys like David Punch, Xavier Edmonds and Micah Robinson can rotate on Boozer and make it tough for him to score.
TCU is top 60 in FT Rate defense, top 40 in forcing turnovers and top 30 in adjusted defensive efficiency. They have the tools to keep this game low scoring, turn it into a rock fight, and possibly even pull off this upset.
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Check Out the Other March Madness Content from Betting News
For college basketball bettors, March Madness is the most wonderful time of the year. And at Betting News, we have you covered for this festively fun season with expert picks throughout the tournament from Nate Hornung and Eddie Griffin, consensus picks for every March Madness game from the First Four to the Final Four, a rundown of the best March Madness betting sites, and more.
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