Syracuse vs. SMU Prediction & Best Bets: Will the Mustangs Canter in Crucial Clash in Charlotte?
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Last Update: Tue Mar 10, 2026, 2:50 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
ncaab
With Selection Sunday now just days away, much remains undecided about how many ACC teams will go dancing. Could it be six or seven? Could it be ten or more? The outcome of Tuesday afternoon's Syracuse vs. SMU matchup (4:30 p.m. ET, ACC Network) will play a role in determining where that number lands.
Entering the ACC tournament, six teams are March Madness locks: Duke, Virginia, Miami, North Carolina, Clemson, and Louisville.
As it stands, NC State should be in, with six losses in their last seven games, the Wolfpack could find themselves in danger if they lose to Pittsburgh or Stanford on Wednesday (12 p.m. ET, ESPN or ESPN2).
Then there are the teams that are firmly on one side of the bubble or the other. Depending on which bracket projections you follow, SMU (19-12, 8-10 ACC) and Stanford could be just inside or just outside, while Cal and Virginia Tech are on the outside looking in but not at all out of it. And this doesn't include one of the conference's hottest teams, Florida State, who would at minimum be in the conversation if not for an 8-12 start.
It also doesn't include Syracuse (15-16, 6-12 ACC), who heads into its matchup vs. SMU with 11 losses in 14 games. As a result, head coach Adrian Autry's time with his alma mater seems likely to end after the ACC tournament unless the Orange make an unlikely run to the automatic bid.
The Mustangs are also on the schneid, having lost four straight and six of seven. But if they are firmly favored at Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, and with a win over the Orange, they will have some valuable room to breathe ahead of a major matchup vs. sixth-seeded Louisville.
Syracuse vs. SMU Prediction and Analysis
If the Mustangs miss the NCAA Tournament, they can point to missed opportunities in home losses to Virginia, NC State, and Miami as much as anything else.
But for the second straight season, they have not done themselves any favors down the stretch. To close out the regular season, they lost at Cal, at Stanford (by 20), at home to Miami, and at FSU (by 13).
The losses to the Bears, Cardinal, and Seminoles closed out a miserable road run for SMU, who was a woeful 2-7 on the road in conference play.
That includes a 79-78 loss at Syracuse, who has not won since that Valentine's Day victory vs. SMU.
At one point, the season showed some promise for the Orange, who beat Tennessee at home, took Houston to overtime in Maui, and were 12-5 overall and 3-1 in the ACC on January 13.
But an overtime loss at Boston College triggered the beginning of the end of their season and quite likely the end of Autry's tenure.
Inconsistency at both ends of the court has been an issue for both teams, more so on the defensive end for SMU and more so on the offensive end for Syracuse.
If things click offensively for the Orange, they can stay in this one for the full 40 minutes. But will Syracuse be locked in mentally vs. SMU with how bad things have gone since mid-January? The outlook is not an optimistic one.
As for SMU, there are also questions to be asked after a second straight stretch slide. But the Mustangs have largely won the games in which they went in with a clear advantage, and that trend should play out again in a must-win spot.
Syracuse vs. SMU Best Bets
SMU -5.5 (-106 at Lucky Rebel)
After an 88-83 loss at Wake Forest on February 28, Autry laid his frustrations bare as he questioned his team's fortitude, perhaps in a last-ditch effort to light a little fire under his underperforming unit.
On one hand, the Orange were better defensively at Louisville and at home against Pittsburgh than they were in the loss to the Demon Deacons, who shot 56.3% from three and 57.9% overall from the field.
But they went the wrong direction offensively, making just 25.6% (11 of 43) from three and 39.7% (46 of 116) across the two games, a 77-62 loss to the Cardinal and a 71-69 overtime loss to the Panthers.
That overall response does not exactly inspire much confidence in how Syracuse may perform vs. SMU, even with the Mustangs not exactly thriving defensively right now.
Could the Orange dig deep and give the Mustangs a scare? It could happen, especially if the best version of Donnie Freeman (17.0 PPG, 7.4 RPG) shows up.
But the word could is doing a lot of heavy lifting here for a team that might just be ready for the season to be over at this point. SMU may not win this one in a rout, but they will at least cover.
Prep for the Big Dance with Betting News
As we do for the Super Bowl and other major events, March Madness will receive extensive coverage at Betting News.
Our March Madness hub is the place to find all of that coverage, including consensus picks for every men's NCAA tournament game, expert picks for many of the major matchups courtesy of Nate Hornung and myself, region breakdowns, the best March Madness betting sites and bonuses, and much more.
Bookmark that page so you don't miss out on any of that content and follow Betting News on social media for even more March Madness betting insight and information.
This site contains commercial content. We may be compensated for the links provided on this page. The content on this page is for informational purposes only. Betting News makes no representation or warranty as to the accuracy of the information given or the outcome of any game or event.
More NCAAB News
NCAAB Betting News
NCAA Basketball Coaching Changes: Where Are They Now?
Nate Hornung
