Sun Belt Conference Tournament: Odds, Insights and Future Picks
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Mon Mar 02, 2026, 3:57 pm ET
Read Time: 6 minutes
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The Sun Belt (Read: Fun Belt) Conference Tournament begins on Tuesday, March 3, and it is a wild looking bracket. All 13 teams in the league are invited to participate in this postseason contest, but they make sure the regular season matters.
What I mean by that, is the top two teams are already in the conference tournament semifinals. All they need to do is win two straight games to automatically qualify for the field of 68 in the NCAA Tournament. While I understand why mid major conferences might structure their postseason tournaments this way, I think it severely screws multiple teams in the process, especially in a year like this one. Let's take a look at the bracket and I'll go into more detail while discussing the odds and giving some future picks.
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Sun Belt Conference Tournament – Bracket & Betting Odds
The Sun Belt Conference Tournament features all 11 teams, but is a bit lopsided
This is what the Sun Belt Conference tournament looks like. And like I said, I do understand the format.. to an extent.
Obviously, the smaller conferences want their best team in the tournament, especially leagues that likely only get the auto-bid. Structuring your postseason tournament to look like the one above makes it MUCH more likely that your top teams represent your conference in the Big Dance. This also puts a much larger emphasis on the regular season, as teams know how beneficial finishing higher up in the standings can be. I get it.
The problems arise when you have massive tiebreakers, like we do in the Sun Belt conference this year. Troy is the one seed after finishing 12-6 in the regular season. Marshall was given the two seed, and Arkansas State fell all the way to the seven seed. But the Thundering Herd and the Red Wolves both finished with an 11-7 Sun Belt record. They even had a better overall record than the Herd, yet still got screwed and now have to win an extra three games, just to face Marshall in the semifinals.
Now, head to head came into play when reseeding these teams, and the Red Wolves did lose to the Thundering Herd during the regular season, but it would be nice if things looked like a "normal" bracket, instead of whatever this nonsense is. Regardless, the odds to win the Sun Belt Tournament kind of reflect this format.
Odds to Win the Sun Belt Conference Tournament
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of March 2, 2026 at 1:32 p.m. eastern. Sign up today with and get a $1,250 deposit bonus, as well as 50 slot spins immediately. Lucky Rebel Sportsbook offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
- Troy +135
- Marshall +300
- Appalachian State +400
- Arkansas State +500
- South Alabama +900
- Coastal Carolina +1200
- James Madison +2000
- Texas State +2500
- Georgia Southern +3500
- Old Dominion +3500
- Southern Mississippi +3500
- Georgia State +8000
- Louisiana +8000
- Louisiana-Monroe +8000
Arkansas State has better odds to win the tournament than South Alabama and Coastal Carolina (whom they would have to beat head to head) as well as Texas State. All three of those teams would be able to play less games to capture this conference championship. The value on the Red Wolves is nonexistent, even if they go on to win the whole thing.
Sun Belt Conference Tournament Picks and Predictions
Thomas Dowd plays over 35 minutes per game for the Trojans this year
Best Bet: Troy Trojans to Win Sun Belt (+135) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
In tournaments that are formatted like the Sun Belt, sticking with chalk is usually your best bet. Troy only needs to win two games, and let's use some hypotheticals to express the value that's still here with this team.
The Trojans will likely face the Appalachian State Mountaineers in the semifinals. They lost to them by 22 points at home in their lone meeting, but were still favored by 8.5 points. More than likely, they will be at least 4.5 point favorites, perhaps closer to a full two possessions, if they face off again. It is highly possible they play the Thundering Herd in the Sun Belt Tournament Final. They beat Marshall by seven as 4.5 point favorites earlier this year.
That means that Troy will more than likely be about five point favorites over both teams in the semifinal and championship games. Assuming this is true, they should be around -225 favorites to win either game, meaning a moneyline roll over would only come out to around +109, when they are priced at +135 as of right now. They are also available at +145 and even +170 elsewhere, making this is the best pick to win the Sun Belt.
As for a longer shot, the Arkansas State line could be telling, and I would not want to be Marshall facing a motivated Red Wolves team coming off two straight wins.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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