South Carolina vs. UConn Women’s Final Four Prediction & Picks: Which Powerhouse Will Power Through in Phoenix?

After a decade of annual regular season meetings, the top two women's college basketball programs in the current era did not play in the regular season this season. However, we will not go a season without a South Carolina vs. UConn matchup for the first time in more than a decade, as the Gamecocks and Huskies will meet in the Final Four opener in Phoenix.

This will be the third Final Four faceoff between the two juggernauts in the last five seasons, but unlike the previous two, today's matchup at Mortgage Matchup Center will not be for the title. Instead, it will be for the chance to meet either Texas or UCLA in Sunday's championship game (3:30 p.m. ET, ABC).

While a pair of 73-72 wins meant that the men's Final Four features only two No. 1 seeds, all four women's March Madness top seeds not only safely navigated their way to Phoenix, but they all did in a decisive manner.

Does that mean we are in store for a classic or a blowout in this South Carolina vs. UConn matchup?

The latter occurred in both head-to-head meetings last season, the first an 87-58 regular season win for the Huskies in Columbia and the second an 82-59 win for UConn in a title-clinching thumping at Amalie Arena in Tampa, Florida.

That handed the Huskies their first championship since 2016, and a year later, they are two wins from a 40-0 season and another title.

The Gamecocks, meanwhile, are looking to win their fourth title in nine seasons, following championships in 2017, 2022 (over UConn), and 2024.

Who will move on to meet either the Longhorns or Bruins? At Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, the Huskies are a firm favorite over the Gamecocks.

South Carolina vs. UConn TLDR

UConn has been dominant this season, with only Michigan managing to stay within single digits. But South Carolina is one of the few teams that can give the Huskies a real test, and I think we will see a competitive game even if the Gamecocks can't pull out the win.

South Carolina vs. UConn Matchup Information

• Matchup: South Carolina (Sacramento 4 Regional #1) vs. UConn (Fort Worth 1 Regional #1) – 2026 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Tournament National Semifinal #1
• Location (Venue): Phoenix, Arizona (Mortgage Matchup Center)
• Date: Friday, April 3, 2026
• Time: 7:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

South Carolina vs. UConn Odds and Probabilities

Odds are from Lucky Rebel as of Friday, April 3, 2026, at 3:15 p.m. ET.

Tale of the Tape: South Carolina vs. UConn

South Carolina vs. UConn Prediction and Analysis

While UConn is favored by several points, I see this one as more of a toss-up.

South Carolina has shown some vulnerable spots this season in two losses to Texas, an overtime loss to Oklahoma, and some close shaves against other quality opponents.

But the Gamecocks are in a sixth straight Final Four because there are still few teams who can touch them, even when they are not at their best. And when the bright lights of March turn on, this team shows up.

That said, the effort that gets you through games vs. Southern, USC, Oklahoma, and TCU must be kicked up a few notches against UConn.

Dawn Staley will have her team ready, but how much will it matter? That's an easy question to answer against all but three teams in the country, all of whom are also in Phoenix.

However, even though the odds are against the Gamecocks, it would be a massive mistake to write them off.

While the Huskies took out both North Carolina (63-42) and Notre Dame (70-52) by comfortable margins, it took some time for the Huskies to put away both the Tar Heels and Fighting Irish. While both North Carolina and Notre Dame were both offensively limited, South Carolina does not have the same limitations. They don't shoot a lot of threes, but they shoot them at a much better clip than many of Staley's teams have.

UConn is one of the few teams capable of forcing the Gamecocks into an off night and exploiting the limitations that they do have, but the same can be said for South Carolina about the Huskies.

Should the Huskies win? I do give them the edge. But I would not be surprised to see a minor upset in Phoenix.

South Carolina vs. UConn Picks

South Carolina Team Total Over 64.5 Points (-107 at Lucky Rebel)

SC/UConn First Half Over 63.5 (-118 at Lucky Rebel)

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