Siena vs. Merrimack Prediction & Best Bets: MAAC Title at Stake in Atlantic City
Written by: Eddie Griffin
Last Update: Tue Mar 10, 2026, 2:02 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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Many big wins take place in Atlantic City throughout the year, but one of the biggest in recent memory could take place tonight, and not in a casino. That is, if third-seeded Siena doesn't play spoiler vs. top seed Merrimack in the Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference tournament championship game (9:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2).
Three years ago, Joe Gallo's Warriors defeated Fairleigh Dickinson to win the Northeast Conference tournament but were ineligible for the NCAA Tournament because they were in the third year of a four-year transition from Division II to Division I.
This time around, they will receive both the trophy and a March Madness bid if they complete a sweep of the regular season and tournament titles.
Recent history favors Siena vs. Merrimack, however. Since the Saints' three-peat from 2008-2010, only two top seeds have won the MAAC tournament. Both instances were by Iona, in 2019 and 2023.
Will the Warriors buck that trend and secure the program's first NCAA tournament appearance at the Division I level? At Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, Merrimack is favored, but Siena will hope the third time is the charm after two close regular season losses.
Siena vs. Merrimack Odds
Odds are from Lucky Rebel.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Total | Implied Probability | True Probability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Siena | +3.5 (-110) | +148 | O125.0 (-109) | 40.32% | 38.49% |
| Merrimack | -3.5 (-110) | -181 | U125.0 (-112) | 64.41% | 61.51% |
Siena vs. Merrimack Prediction and Analysis
Prior to this season, opposing coaches picked Merrimack to finish seventh in the MAAC. It wasn't an unreasonable assessment, given that the Warriors lost their top five scorers from last season's team, which went 14-6 in the program's debut season in the MAAC.
But Merrimack has made a habit of winning since moving to Division I, and that makes the resulting run to the MAAC regular season title unsurprising.
That the Warriors went 17-3 in conference play while being led by a true freshman and a Division II transfer? That's another story, but thanks to MAAC Rookie of the Year and Player of the Year Kevair Kennedy (18.5 PPG, 4.6 RPG, 4.2 APG) and Gannon University transfer Ernest Shelton (15.9 PPG, 3.1 RPG), as well as semifinal hero Tye Dorset (23 points in Sunday's 58-57 win over Marist), the Big Dance is one win away.
Tonight's opposition knows firsthand what Kennedy and Shelton are capable of. In a 79-72 overtime loss vs. Merrimack on February 20, Siena saw Kennedy rack up 32 points (including a perfect 16 of 16 from the foul line) and Shelton nail five threes.
The two were a combined 8 of 26 from the field against Marist, but can Siena coach Gerry McNamara cook up a similar plan? Percentage wise, neither Kennedy (14 of 37, 37.8%) nor Shelton (10 of 25, 40%) shot well overall in either regular season contest, but Shelton's perimeter prowess helped tip the scales in both games.
If Siena can keep that from happening again, the Saints will like their chances to pull out the win vs. Merrimack. But I like the firepower the Warriors bring to the table, and after falling short in their first two opportunities to make the NCAA Tournament, they won't this time.
Siena vs. Merrimack Best Bets
Merrimack -3.5 (-110 at Lucky Rebel)
That the Saints are here without Antonio Chandler, who started the team's first 29 games but was taken out of competition due to eligibility concerns, is noteworthy.
But while Siena saw off Mount St. Mary's and Fairfield in Atlantic City without Chandler, they will feel his loss tonight vs. Merrimack. Chandler had a double-double in each regular season matchup against the Warriors, recording 10 points and 10 rebounds in the home loss on January 9 and 18 points and a dozen rebounds in the rematch last month.
Chandler's absence isn't the only reason why Merrimack should win this matchup, but it will be one of the reasons why they do.
This spread is a slight risk given how the first two head-to-head matchups went and how wild these small conference championship contests can be, but no MAAC tournament title tilt has been decided by fewer than four points since Iona's one-point overtime win against Siena in 2017.
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