Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary’s Prediction & Best Bets: Can the Broncos Buck the Odds?

Last night, Santa Clara took a big step towards reaching the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1996, but tonight the Broncos can make it a certainty with a West Coast Conference tournament semifinal win vs. Saint Mary's (11:30 p.m. ET, ESPN2).

The third-seeded Broncos (25-7) couldn't buy a bucket down the stretch last night against sixth-seeded Pacific, but they were able to close out a 76-68 victory and avoid the same fate that befell them in last year's quarterfinals.

Thanks to that win, Santa Clara remains in a good position in the latest bracketology updates at major media sites. A win tonight over the second-seeded Gaels (27-4) would send the Broncos to the conference tournament championship game for the first time since 2007 and the eighth time overall, and it would make it highly, highly unlikely that they could be overtaken even with a chaotic week around the country.

Saint Mary's is already locked into the March Madness field, but winning a sixth WCC tournament title with wins vs. Santa Clara and Gonzaga can only help their cause when it comes to getting the best possible seed.

Will the Gaels set up one conference championship clash with Gonzaga before the Bulldogs move to the Pac-12? Or will the Broncos play spoiler and ensure that their three-decade Big Dance drought will end come Sunday? Saint Mary's is favored at Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, but Santa Clara has a positive ATS record as an underdog this season.

Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary's Prediction & Best Bets

Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary's Prediction & Analysis

Whether it was nerves or the memory of last year's stunning loss to Pepperdine, Santa Clara hit a wall in the last six minutes in last night's quarterfinal contest against Pacific.

With 5:56 left, the Broncos led 74-61 after Elijah Mahi hit his third three-pointer of the night. From there, they went scoreless for more than five minutes, during which time the Tigers pulled within eight, before Allen Graves put a bow on the win with his basket with 39 seconds remaining.

Fortunately for Santa Clara, Pacific did not make the most of that late lull, but they cannot have such a dry spell vs. Saint Mary's, who is one of only three teams to hold the Broncos to fewer than 70 points this season.

In fact, the Gaels did that in both regular season matchups, with differing results. At Santa Clara, it wasn't enough to prevent a 62-54 defeat on January 17, but they flipped the script in Moraga with an 86-67 win on February 25.

Offensively, this is Saint Mary's most prolific offensive team in a decade and a half, but the team's calling card continues to be defense. The Gaels are just outside the top 40 nationally in adjusted offensive efficiency, but they are inside the top 20 in adjusted defensive efficiency. Thanks to that combination, SMC is 26-1 this season when scoring 70+ points, losing only to Vanderbilt.

Can Santa Clara, who averages 83.5 PPG, break through and breach that mark tonight vs. Saint Mary's? The Broncos have done so just once in the last night head-to-head meetings, but it will be tough for the Gaels to do it for a third time this season. I think they will hit that magic number, and I think the Broncos will pull the upset tonight.

Santa Clara vs. Saint Mary's Best Bets

Allen Graves 2+ Made Threes (+220 at Lucky Rebel)

Graves has made just 34 three-pointers in 32 games this season, an average of 1.1 per game. But the redshirt freshman (11.7 PPG), who is one of three double-digit scorers for Santa Clara, is shooting 42.5% from outside and showed his perimeter potency in both regular season meetings vs. Saint Mary's. In the home win, he made two of his four attempts from three, and in the road loss, he made three of seven as part of a 20-point performance.

Also, Graves is in the midst of a productive stretch, having scored 20 (at Saint Mary's), 14 (vs. Oregon State), and 19 (vs. Pacific last night) in his last three games. In that stretch, he has made three, two, and three threes while shooting 53.3% (8 of 15) from behind the line.

With Mahi (14.0 PPG) and Christian Hammond (15.9 PPG) attracting a lot of attention tonight, Graves should get some decent looks tonight. As a result, this is an outstanding option, as are the +150 odds for him to score 15+ points.