#9 Saint Louis vs. #1 Michigan Prediction & Best Bets (Midwest Round of 32): Billikens, Wolverines Set for Shootout in Buffalo?

There were points aplenty on the opening day of March Madness in Buffalo, but the two nighttime contests at KeyBank Center saw both winning teams hit the century mark in blowout wins. Is a shootout thus in store for Saturday's Saint Louis vs. Michigan matchup?

The Wolverines (32-3), the top seed in the Midwest Region, opened the tournament with a 101-80 strolle over 16-seed Howard, who did its best to keep up with Michigan but ultimately could not.

The ninth-seeded Billikens (29-5), playing the program's first NCAA tournament game since 2019, overmatched and overwhelmed eighth-seeded Georgia 102-77. The Bulldogs were favored entering the game but never led, and a 23-0 run that spanned the end of the first half and the first five minutes of the second half put any possibility of a comeback far out of reach.

As impressive as the Billikens' blowout of Georgia was, they face tall odds to upset the Wolverines, who are favored by a hefty margin at Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks as they look to make the Sweet Sixteen for the seventh straight tournament trip.

Saint Louis vs. Michigan TLDR

Take the over, no matter the number. And if you fancy some player prop action, Aday Mara should continue his recent scoring success in a win for the Wolverines.

Saint Louis vs. Michigan Matchup Information

• Matchup: #9 Saint Louis vs. #1 Michigan (2026 NCAA Division I Men's Basketball Tournament Midwest Regional Second Round)
• Location (Venue): Buffalo, New York (KeyBank Center)
• Time: 12:10 p.m. ET
• TV: CBS

Saint Louis vs. Michigan Odds

Odds are from Lucky Rebel.

Tale of the Tape: Saint Louis vs. Michigan

Saint Louis vs. Michigan Prediction and Analysis

Discounting the Billikens' chances to pull the upset would be unwise, but it is difficult to picture an upset here.

However, the numbers do line up well for Saint Louis to potentially cover vs. Michigan. The Wolverines are 1-8 ATS in their last nine games, and they are 2-13 ATS in their last 15 games as a double-digit favorite. Beyond the numbers, large spreads don't carry a lot of appeal after the first round. I'm staying away from it altogether here, but if I was to pick one side of it, I'd take the Billikens to cover.

For me, the targets for this matchup are the total and one player prop. The numbers don't line up well for the over, but this is a spot where the projections win out over the trends. This season, the over is 4-8 in Saint Louis games in which the listed total has been 160+, while it is 6-9 in Michigan games in which the total has been 160+.

Saint Louis vs. Michigan Picks

Saint Louis/Michigan Over 161.5 (-111 at Lucky Rebel)

While the trends aren't favorable, Bart Torvik's projections for Saturday have Michigan winning 90-76. Both teams are defensively adept enough to potentially keep this one under, but based on each team's style and results to this point, I don't see that happening.

Aday Mara Over 14.5 Points (-139 at Lucky Rebel)

There's some juice here, but that doesn't put me off whatsoever. Mara is averaging 11.9 points per game for the season, but he has kicked it up a notch late in the season. In his last seven games, Mara has scored 15+ points four times and landed on 14 two other times.

The outlier in the bunch is his performance against Michigan State, when he had four points on 1 of 3 shooting in 19 minutes. Otherwise, he has taken at least nine shots from the field, scored at least 14 points, and played at least 20 minutes.

After producing an all-around performance in 21 minutes against Howard (19 points, 8-10 FG, seven rebounds, six assists, and three blocks), look for the 7'3" junior to be one of the keys to Michigan's success against Saint Louis.

Bet on March Madness at Lucky Rebel and BetOnline

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At both of these sites, you can find odds for every March Madness game, as well as a variety of futures odds for the tournament. If you love to bet alternate spreads and totals, Lucky Rebel will have both for every tournament game, and it is also a top destination for betting on March Madness player props. BetOnline, meanwhile, is a top option for same-game parlays, building custom props, and March Madness futures.

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Check Out the Other March Madness Content from Betting News

For college basketball bettors, March Madness is the most wonderful time of the year. And at Betting News, we have you covered for this festively fun season with expert picks throughout the tournament from Nate Hornung and Eddie Griffin, consensus picks for every March Madness game from the First Four to the Final Four, a rundown of the best March Madness betting sites, and more.

Also, through our streams and social media channels, you can get even more insight from Nate and other members of the Betting News team, as well as offer your own thoughts and tips for the tournament.

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