College basketball rolls into a lighter slate this evening, but the energy around this matchup feels anything but small. Syracuse returns to the floor after a long stretch of rest following a huge win over Tennessee, and the building should be buzzing as they welcome Saint Joseph's to town. The Hawks enter with confidence and momentum, riding a steady four game winning streak and searching for another strong result to boost their early season profile. With both teams bringing very different strengths into this matchup, there is plenty to break down. Let us take a closer look at what to expect tonight.
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Last 30 Days: 41-29 (+12.77 Units)
Saint Joseph's vs. Syracuse Odds
How will the Hawks perform against the Orange?
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Spread
St. Joes: +13 (-109)
Syracuse: -13 (-111)
Total
Over: 145.5 (-117)
Under: 145.5 (-103)
Moneyline
St. Joes: +661
Syracuse: -1000
Saint Joseph's vs. Syracuse Best Bet
Very small slate this evening in college basketball, but this matchup should bring some firepower. After nine days off following their win over Tennessee, the Syracuse Orange host the Saint Joseph's Hawks this evening. The Hawks are riding a four game winning streak and looking to make a statement in one of the biggest matchups of their season. With a spread dancing between 12.5 and 13, will the Hawks have the juice to cover this evening? Let us dive in.
System Play
I have had this matchup circled since December 2, when Syracuse took down Tennessee at home as 7.5 point underdogs and won outright 62 to 60. The Orange faithful stormed the court in celebration and it was marvelous. Yes, this will be a system play of fading the storm. I am all over the Hawks +13.
With the Orange getting nine days of rest, that does concern me. Then again, I could also make the argument that nine days is too much rest. Taking down Tennessee also concluded their early season gauntlet. Syracuse faced Houston, Kansas, Iowa State, and Tennessee in their last four games. Most of those were during feast week, but could they play down to their competition this evening. Plus, they are not looking ahead to anyone, as they host Hofstra on Saturday and Mercyhurst on Wednesday.
Now, St. Joes has not endured the schedule Syracuse has. They have had one of the easiest schedules in the country. According to Haslametrics, the Hawks have had the 14th easiest schedule up to this point, while the Orange have had the 99th toughest. The Hawks have still taken on top 100 competition this season, losing to Virginia Tech and UNLV on the road.
Keys to Success
Despite those tough losses, there are a few ways for the Hawks to keep this matchup within 13 points. First, they are not a great three point shooting team, ranked 327th in three point percentage. However, they shoot a ton, ranked 81st in three point rate. Syracuse is allowing the 22nd most three point attempts in the country. If the Hawks can be efficient from deep, they could be dangerous. On top of that, the Orange have not been very efficient from deep either and they do not rely heavily on the outside shot.
Secondly, St. Joes has been strong at generating second chance points this season, ranking inside the top 100. Meanwhile, Syracuse has struggled defensively on the glass, ranked 275th. If the Hawks can hone in on winning the rebound battle, that will be huge for them this evening. Another small nugget, the Orange are the second worst free throw shooting team in the country, while the Hawks are ninth in free throw percentage.
I live by fading the storm and even with the rest advantage sitting close to ten days, I will die by the storm. I trust the Hawks to keep it close by playing their game. Hopefully the Orange are a little rusty and downplay Saint Joes this evening.
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