#18 Purdue vs. #3 Michigan Picks and Predictions: Big Ten Championship
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Sun Mar 15, 2026, 12:55 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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The top seeded Michigan Wolverines take on the No. 7 seed in the Big Ten as they meet the Purdue Boilermakers in the conference championship at the United Center on Sunday. We've had a great tournament in the Windy City so far, full of plenty of upsets. Aside from the No. 1 ranked Wolverines, the final four teams in this league's tournament included the five, six and seven seeded squads, showing you how deep the Big Ten was this season. Who will be able to claim the conference title? Let's get into our expert's favorite picks and find out.
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Best Bet: Michigan -6 (-114) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
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#18 Purdue Boilermakers vs. #3 Michigan Wolverines NCAA Basketball Insights
The Boilermakers need a huge game from Trey Kaufman-Renn against Michigan in the Big Ten Championship on Sunday
Purdue has now won four of their last five since losing to Ohio State and Michigan State in back to back games, only dropping one to Wisconsin at home by four. But Michigan has lost just twice all year long, including a big victory over the Boilermakers at Mackey Arena. In that previous meeting, the Wolverines were 2.5 point away favorites with a total that got bought up from 153.5 to 156.5. It didn't end up coming into play, as Michigan won 91-80, covering the short spread and soaring over the total.
The Wolverines scored 48 points in the first half, and although they let the Boilermakers win the second 20 minutes of the game, the substantial lead they built was enough to get the job done. Now Dusty May and Matt Painter's squads meet again with the Big Ten Championship on the line. The Wolverines won this tournament last year, while Purdue is looking for their first postseason tournament win since 2023, where they were the National Runner Ups in March Madness.
Matchup Information – Purdue vs. Michigan – March 15
- Venue & Location: United Center (Chicago, IL)
- Date: Sunday, March 15, 2026
- Kick Off: 3:30 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: CBS
Purdue vs. Michigan Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of March 15, 2026 at 12:19 a.m. eastern. Sign up today with and get a $1,250 deposit bonus, as well as 50 slot spins immediately. Lucky Rebel Sportsbook offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
Spread
- Purdue +6 (-106)
- Michigan -6 (-114)
Moneyline
- Purdue +210
- Michigan -250
Total
- Over 150.5 (-110)
- Under 150.5 (-110)
#18 Purdue vs. #3 Michigan NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions
Elliot Cadeau and the Wolverines are one win away from back to back Big Ten Titles
Purdue vs. Michigan Prediction: Michigan Wins and Covers, Over 150.5
Best Bet: Michigan -6 (-114) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
I expected Purdue to get by Nebraska with ease, and they did. However, I had them losing to Tom Izzo's squad in the semifinals. Lucky for them, they ended up playing Mick Cronin's team who struggles away from the Pacific Time Zone, but that win earned them a second date with the top team in the conference. While Purdue is very good at crashing the boards, Michigan has the second best front court in the country in my eyes (behind Florida). I expect them to use their bigs plenty, whether that be for offensive rebounds or designed sets to get those guys various looks close to the rim.
The Wolverines pretty much have a one seed locked up, assuming they don't lose in humiliating fashion to Purdue, which as you can tell by my bet, I don't think it will happen. Michigan shot 53% from the field and 57% from deep in the first meeting, so while they are due for some regression, the books clearly see it the same way I do. As 2.5 point favorites on the road, Michigan should only be laying 4.5 or so on a neutral site, and the oddsmakers set this as a two possession game. Much like the Vanderbilt vs. Arkansas line, I think it's a bit telling.
The Wolverines won the rebounding battle 39-31 in the first meeting, but they turned the ball over twice as many times as the Boilermaker's did. However, May's team has been able to escape some close calls. You can either interpret that as they are getting lucky, or that they are simply that good at winning tough games during crunch time. I'll lean more with the latter as I back them in this spot.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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