College basketball is built on identity, and few coaches embrace theirs like Ross Hodge. His teams play tough, physical, and slow, an old-school brand that bleeds the clock and frustrates opponents. After cashing three straight unders to start the year, his West Virginia squad faces its toughest test yet as the Pitt Panthers come to town. Both programs are unbeaten, both defend at a high level, and both make opponents work for every look. The clash in Morgantown should feature two teams determined to impose their will, where pace and patience take center stage. Points will be earned the hard way tonight.
Pitt vs. West Virginia: Ross Hodge System | November 13, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Published: Thu Nov 13, 2025, 11:01 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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2024-25 Season: -14.5 Units
Last 7 Days: 10-6 (+3.8 Units)
2025-26 Season: 13-11 (+2.0 Units)
Pitt vs. West Virginia Odds
Can Ross Hodge keep up his under streak?
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Spread
Pitt: +6.5 (-102)
West Virginia: -6.5 (-118)
Total
Over: 133.5 (-110)
Under: 133.5 (-110)
Moneyline
Pitt: +226
West Virginia: -275
Pitt vs. West Virginia Best Bet
The system stays alive. After a third straight under for Ross Hodge and his squad, we turn our attention to Thursday evening as they host the Pitt Panthers. Like West Virginia, Pitt is off to a perfect 3-0 start, with wins over Eastern Michigan, Longwood, and Youngstown State. The Panthers have also leaned to the under, hitting it in two of their first three games.
The total for this matchup opened at 136.5, which I grabbed early. I still fully endorse the under at 133.5. This sets up to be a slow, competitive grind tonight in Morgantown. The spread opened at 4.5 in favor of the Mountaineers and has since climbed two full points. I do not have a strong lean on a side, but if the number keeps rising, I would look toward Pitt and take the points.
For those unaware, I am a diehard Ross Hodge fan. I have followed him closely since his days at North Texas. His brand of basketball is my kind of game. I love unders, and Hodge knows how to create them, methodical offense paired with relentless defense.
Tempo Tempo Tempo
Expect the pace tonight to move about as fast as your grandma's pickup league. According to Bart Torvik and Haslametrics, West Virginia ranks between the sixth slowest team in the country and the 65th, while Pitt sits between 276th and 283rd. Both teams are going to want it slow, and they should both get their wish.
Defensively, these two are elite. Both sit inside the top 75 nationally in adjusted defensive efficiency, and both rank top 30 in two-point defense and effective field goal percentage defense. Pitt has been sharp from deep, shooting nearly 37% from three, but West Virginia has excelled at limiting that threat, holding opponents below 27% from beyond the arc.
This will be the toughest test of the young season for both sides. Pitt has yet to allow an opponent to reach 70 points, and West Virginia has not allowed anyone past 65.
Hands Off
The only real concern for the under tonight is whether both teams rack up trips to the free throw line. Each ranks inside the top 30 in free throw rate, though Pitt has done a strong job staying disciplined defensively, sitting inside the top 50 in free throw rate allowed. If both teams can stay out of foul trouble, we should be in a great spot to keep this under streak alive.
This game screams grind. Both teams thrive on slow tempo and elite defense, and neither has allowed more than 70 points this season. With West Virginia and Pitt both ranking inside the top 75 in defensive efficiency and preferring to control pace, possessions will be limited. As long as foul trouble does not inflate free throw attempts, this sets up as another classic Ross Hodge under. The system stays alive in Morgantown tonight.
Best Bet: Full Game Under 133.5 (-110) on BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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