Pacific vs. Santa Clara Prediction & Expert Picks: Broncos Bid for Bubble Boost

Santa Clara has not had a celebratory Selection Sunday since 1996, but a 30-year drought could be nearing its end. Reaching the championship game of the West Coast Conference tournament will make it a certainty, but provided Pacific doesn't pull a mighty upset in tonight's quarterfinal matchup vs. the third-seeded Broncos (11:00 p.m. ET, ESPN2), reaching the championship game may prove to not even be necessary for Santa Clara.

As it stands, the Broncos (24-7, 15-3 WCC) are on the right side of the bubble at ESPN (#11 seed and in the First Four), CBS Sports (#10 seed), FOX Sports (#11 seed and in the First Four), and USA Today (#11 seed and in the First Four).

As a result, the Broncos cannot afford a loss to the sixth-seeded Tigers (18-14, 8-10 WCC), who advanced with a 61-58 win over seventh-seeded Seattle yesterday.

Do they need to follow it up with a semifinal win over second-seeded Saint Mary's? It's possible, but with a lot of mediocrity around the bubble, a win tonight could very well be enough.

Can Pacific throw a wrench into Santa Clara's hopes of assuaging anxiety ahead of Selection Sunday? Conference tournaments can bring out the best in teams, but the Broncos are heavily favored at Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks.

Pacific vs. Santa Clara Prediction and Expert Picks

Pacific vs. Santa Clara Prediction and Analysis

Santa Clara's place in the March Madness bracket could and should already be secure. Alas, the Broncos dropped the ball in three key contests. Against Saint Louis, they fell by a point in the final seconds. At Arizona State, they blew a 19-point second-half lead. And against Loyola-Chicago, they went down by two to a 4-9 team.

Had they won even two of those three games, Santa Clara would be locked in or close. Still, they hold their destiny in their own hands, and that is a good place to be in at this point. After all, they went into the season having lost six of their top seven scorers from last season's team.

This year's team can learn from last year's team, who capitulated against 12-21 Pepperdine in this same round. Last year's team wasn't in position to reach the NCAA Tournament without an auto bid, but it was a stunning loss to a team they had beaten by double digits in the regular season.

Pacific is better than that Pepperdine team, but they also didn't fare well vs. Santa Clara in the regular season. The Tigers fell 85-69 on the road on January 14 and 71-56 at home in the rematch on February 4.

Beating a team three times in one season is not an easy feat, even if you have a significant edge. And in these spots, bettors can't be faulted for wondering if Santa Clara could be looking ahead and saving its best efforts for Saint Mary's.

But they won't get to tomorrow if they don't get through today, and with last year's conference tournament catastrophe in mind and the high stakes involved in tonight's matchup at Orleans Arena, the expectation from this view is that Santa Clara will not let Pacific sniff an upset.

Pacific vs. Santa Clara Expert Picks

Santa Clara Team Total Over 79 (-117 at Lucky Rebel)

Pacific has allowed 80+ points just eight times this season, and that includes some notable opposition. They gave up 67 in a loss at Cal, a potential tournament team, 72 in a home loss to Saint Mary's, 71 in a nine-point loss at Gonzaga, and 71 in the home loss to Santa Clara.

So, there's a little risk involved here, especially when nerves could very well come into play for the Broncos. Pacific held Gonzaga to just 29 first-half points and a halftime tie, so don't dismiss the Tigers' chances to compete vs. Santa Clara.

However, the Broncos (83.8 PPG this season) hit the 80-point mark 14 times in 18 regular season conference games, including eight 90-point games and three 100-point games. If they come out with the intent that they should show tonight, they should have another productive performance on the offensive end.