Oklahoma vs. Arkansas Prediction & Best Bets: Sizzling Sooners Shoot for Semifinals & Selection Security

After another chaotic day of conference tournament action, the March Madness bubble conversation now focuses squarely on a handful of teams. One of those teams, Oklahoma, could move firmly onto the right side of the bubble with a win tonight vs. Arkansas in the SEC tournament quarterfinals (9:30 p.m. ET, SEC Network).

The Sooners (19-14), the No. 11 seed in Nashville, advanced to today's matchup against the third-seeded Razorbacks (23-8) with a 83-63 rout of sixth-seeded Texas A&M last night.

Three weeks ago, OU was 13-14 and headed toward a potential losing record, which would have almost certainly spelled the end of coach Porter Moser's tenure.

But with six consecutive wins, Moser's pink slip isn't signed just yet, and after torching Texas A&M, Oklahoma heads into tonight's matchup vs. Arkansas with a win potentially enough to make a semifinal (vs. either 15^th-seeded Ole Miss or second-seeded Alabama) about seed and not need.

That may well depend on where you look, of course. According to this morning's bracketology update at CBS Sports, the Sooners wouldn't even have to travel to Dayton for the First Four (but rival Texas would). However, in Joe Lunardi's most recent bracketology update at ESPN, OU is the first team out.

Withs in the Atlantic 10 (with a special focus on Georgetown vs. Saint Louis and Duquesne vs. VCU), Big East (Seton Hall vs. St. John's), and Mountain West (Nevada vs. Utah State and New Mexico vs. San Diego State) holding a lot of weight, Oklahoma is still in must-win mode tonight.

Can the Sooners take themselves to seventh heaven? Odds are not overly favorable at Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, but OU has notched four consecutive outright wins as an underdog.

Oklahoma vs. Arkansas Prediction and Analysis

For the most part, OU has been a decent offensive team throughout the season. They have scored fewer than 75 points just nine times this season and enter today's game averaging 82.8 points per game.

But in the win streak that has revived their NCAA Tournament hopes, the Sooners have paired offense with defense, which had not often been the case prior to this run. In each win, they have scored 80+ points, and they have allowed 80+ just once, in an 88-85 overtime win at Texas last Saturday.

Can Oklahoma keep it up vs. Arkansas? In the regular season, the Sooners actually put in what could be seen as a respectable effort against the Razorbacks. Arkansas averages 90.2 PPG for the season, but they were held seven below that in an 83-79 win in Norman on January 27.

That was the seventh of nine consecutive losses for the Sooners, who are 8-2 since the streak ended with wins over four teams who are tournament locks (Vanderbilt, Georgia, Missouri, and Texas A&M) and two more over fellow bubble boys (Texas and Auburn).

Would a ninth win in 11 games put that resume over the top? That remains to be seen, but it would seem difficult to slide the likes of Auburn, SMU, or Texas over them with both that resume and recent run in mind.

Will they get it? Arkansas will not be in a charitable mood, but the Razorbacks, much like Texas A&M last night, don't need this game as much as the Sooners do. That doesn't count for everything at this time of year, but OU is clicking at a high level, and that will continue tonight as they move on to the semifinals in Nashville.

Oklahoma vs. Arkansas Best Bets

Oklahoma +7.5 (-111 at Lucky Rebel)

OU Team Total Over 80.5 (-117 at Lucky Rebel)

Even if the Sooners don't win tonight, you have to like their chances to cover, especially when they lost by only four when the two teams met earlier this season.

Also, while the Razorbacks are an outstanding offensive squad, their defensive abilities do not rate similarly. They rank 14^th in the SEC in points allowed per game (80.0 PPG) and in field goal defense (45.4%), and they have allowed at least 84 points in each of their last six games.

Also, for what it's worth, Arkansas has allowed 80+ points in every loss but one (a 69-66 loss to Michigan State). Oklahoma has scored 80+ points in 17 of 19 wins (non-conference wins vs. Alcorn State and Marquette are the lone exceptions). So, if the Sooners win, it's highly, highly, highly likely that they will score at least 81 points in the process.

Whatever the outcome, it will likely come with the over hitting, but with these two plays already on the board, an extra one doesn't feel overly necessary.

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