#6 Notre Dame vs. #2 Vanderbilt Prediction & Picks (Women’s Sweet Sixteen): Star Scorers Face Off in Fort Worth

While the best is often saved for last, the other women's Sweet Sixteen matchups may find it hard to compare to Friday's opener. That is because Notre Dame vs. Vanderbilt is also Hannah Hidalgo vs. Mikayla Blakes, a showdown between two of the top three scorers in the nation.

The sixth-seeded Fighting Irish (24-10) advanced to the Fort Worth 1 regional semifinals with double-digit wins over No. 11 Fairfield (79-60) and No. 3 Ohio State (83-73). Hidalgo was central to the wins over the Stags and Buckeyes and has been for most of Notre Dame's wins this season.

Hidalgo, who ranks third nationally in scoring (25.2 PPG) and leads the nation in steals (5.6 SPG), had 23 points, nine rebounds, eight assists, and six steals against 11-seed Fairfield and 26 points, 13 rebounds, eight steals, and two assists against third-seeded Ohio State.

The Irish are a fixture in the second week of women's March Madness, having made the Sweet Sixteen in their last 15 tournament appearances. However, they haven't made the Elite Eight since 2019.

Hidalgo may need one of the best games of her season to end that drought and help Notre Dame prevail vs. Vanderbilt and Blakes, Division I's top scorer.

Blakes (27.0 PPG) recorded her 13^th 30-point game of the season in a first-round rout of 15-seed High Point (102-61) then had a near-triple double (25 points, 10 rebounds, nine assists, plus four steals) in a 75-57 thumping of seventh-seeded Illinois in the second round.

The win over the Illini put the Commodores into the Sweet Sixteen for the first time since 2009, and a win over Notre Dame will book their first Elite Eight trip since 2002. And at Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, the Commodores are firm favorites to do so.

Notre Dame vs. Vanderbilt TLDR

This one is must-see TV with Notre Dame's Hannah Hidalgo and Vanderbilt's Mikayla Blakes. Expect both stars to put on a show, but the Commodores are a more complete team and should cover on the way to reaching the Elite Eight for the first time since 2002.

Notre Dame vs. Vanderbilt Matchup Information

• Matchup: #6 Notre Dame vs. #2 Vanderbilt (2026 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Tournament Fort Worth 1 Regional Sweet Sixteen)
• Location (Venue): Fort Worth, Texas (Dickies Arena)
• Date: Friday, March 27, 2026
• Time: 2:30 p.m. ET
• TV: ESPN

Notre Dame vs. Vanderbilt Odds

Odds are from Lucky Rebel as of Thursday, March 26, 2026, at 5:55 p.m. ET. 

Tale of the Tape: Notre Dame vs. Vanderbilt

Notre Dame vs. Vanderbilt Prediction and Analysis

Given that Hidalgo has led the Irish in scoring in 30 of 34 games and Blakes has led the Commodores in scoring in 29 of 33 games, the two stars should both shine in this matchup.

For the season, Hidalgo (47.5%) has a higher field goal percentage than Blakes (46.4%), with both averaging almost 20 shots per game. However, Blakes (22 of 38 FG, 57.9%) has been on target at a higher clip thus far in the tournament than Hidalgo (17 of 44 FG, 38.6%).

Can Notre Dame tip the scales vs. Vanderbilt by limiting the supporting cast in the same way it did against Ohio State.

In Monday's matchup in Columbus, Buckeyes star Jaloni Cambridge, also one of the nation's top scorers, went off for 41 points (13 of 25 FG, 5 of 8 3PT, 10 of 13 FT).

However, no one else scored in double figures for Ohio State. Overall, the rest of the team combined to make 11 of 27 FG (40.7%), including 2 of 7 (28.6%) from three, and scored just 32 points. Chance Gray, OSU's second leading scorer at 14.7 PPG and a 40.5% three-point shooter (at 6.0 attempts per game), took just five shots from the field and missed both of her three-point attempts.

At the same time, Notre Dame's supporting cast came up big, with four other players beside Hidalgo scoring in double figures.

Hannah Hidalgo vs. Mikayla Blakes: Season Stats

That is a sound blueprint for Notre Dame to try to follow vs. Vanderbilt, but will it work to success?

Though this is unfamiliar territory, the Commodores have excelled against quality opponents this season. A robust resume has been built on a stout SEC slate that featured 11 games against NCAA tournament teams and challenging non-conference contests against Michigan, Virginia, Cal, and BYU.

Vandy is 7-3 against ranked teams, and the Dores also own wins over fellow Sweet Sixteen squads Virginia, Michigan, LSU, Kentucky (twice), Oklahoma, and Texas. All but six wins have come by double digits, and the only teams to solve them this season are Georgia, Ole Miss (twice), and South Carolina.

On the other side, the Irish are just 4-5 against ranked teams after posting a winning record against ranked foes in each of the past two seasons. For all of Hidalgo's extraordinary efforts, consistency beyond her has not been there. And while the win over Ohio State was highly impressive, the ceiling for Notre Dame feels limited regarding a deeper March Madness run.

Also, while Vanderbilt is stronger offensively than defensively, the Commodores have made stops when they needed to against some of the best players and teams in the country. Taking them down will prove to be a task too tough for the Irish, even if Blakes doesn't go for 30+.

Notre Dame vs. Vanderbilt Picks

Vanderbilt Team Total Over 77.5 (-122 at Lucky Rebel)

To date, Vanderbilt has been held to 78 or fewer points in consecutive games just once this season, and the Commodores have been held to 78 or fewer points just 10 times overall.

So, after scoring only 75 against Illinois in the second round, the percentages favor a higher output against Notre Dame. If they hit that number, a Vanderbilt victory is highly likely, considering that the Commodores are 23-1 when scoring 78 or more points this season. The lone blemish in that record is an 89-78 loss to Ole Miss in the SEC tournament quarterfinals.

Vanderbilt -5.5 (-115 at Lucky Rebel)

Bart Torvik's projections for Friday's women's college basketball games have this one down as an 80-75 Vanderbilt win. That ticks the box for the team total, but it just misses the spread.

That said, I like the Commodores' chances to cover. Only five of their 29 wins this season have come by six or fewer points, and that includes 16-point wins over Oklahoma and Texas and a 25-point win over Alabama.

Also, when the Irish have given up 75 or more points this season, they are 0-7 with six double-digit losses. I don't see Notre Dame keeping it to 75 or under vs. Vanderbilt, and I don't see the Irish keeping it inside two possessions.

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