#6 Notre Dame vs. #1 UConn Prediction & Picks (Fort Worth 1 Regional Final): Fierce Rivals Face Off for Final Four Berth

The Notre Dame vs. UConn rivalry is one of the biggest in women's college basketball, as the two former Big East foes have met regularly for three decades. And after not meeting in the regular season, it should not come as a surprise whatsoever that the Fighting Irish and Huskies are meeting with the first Final Four berth up for grabs in the Fort Worth 1 regional final.

From 1996 to 2013, the two teams met every season as Big East rivals, with four meetings also taking place in the Final in that stretch. Since then, they have met in both the regular season and during March Madness, missing only the 2020-21 season.

UConn has dominated the rivalry, winning 40 times in 56 meetings. However, Notre Dame has won five of eight March Madness meetings, and the Irish have won three of the last four overall. Most recently, however, the Huskies rolled 85-47 in Storrs in January of last year.

That was one of 37 wins for UConn on the way to the program's first national championship since 2016. Last night's 63-42 win over North Carolina was the Huskies' 37^th in 37 games this season, and it moved them closer to a second 40-0 season for Geno Auriemma.

The first, in the 2013-14 season, ended with a 79-58 win over 37-0 Notre Dame, whose own pursuit of perfection ended in Nashville.

A win in Fort Worth will send the Huskies to their 24^th Final Four and 17^th in the last 18 tournaments, while the Irish would reach their 10^th Final Four and first since 2019 with an upset win at Dickies Arena.

Such a result looks highly unlikely, however. At Lucky Rebel and other top online sportsbooks, UConn is favored by another wide margin once again.

Notre Dame vs. UConn TLDR

UConn should cruise to the win in Fort Worth, but I like the Irish to do enough to cover.

Notre Dame vs. UConn Matchup Information

• Matchup: #6 Notre Dame vs. #1 UConn (2026 NCAA Division I Women's Basketball Tournament Fort Worth 1 Regional Final)
• Location: Fort Worth, Texas (Dickies Arena)
• Date: Sunday, March 29, 2026
• Time: 1:00 p.m. ET
• TV: ABC

Notre Dame vs. UConn Odds and Probabilities

Odds are from Lucky Rebel as of Saturday, March 28, 2026, at 3:15 p.m. ET.

Tale of the Tape: Notre Dame vs. UConn

Notre Dame vs. UConn Prediction and Analysis

Notre Dame star Hannah Hidalgo said that the Irish will be much better vs. UConn than they were in last season's meeting with the Huskies, who led by nine two minutes into the third quarter then blew the game open with a 25-4 run.

The bar is fairly low for a 38-point loss, but how much better will the Irish be in this matchup?

Confidence should certainly be high for Notre Dame, who did an outstanding job defensively in Friday's 67-64 win over 2-seed Vanderbilt. Mikayla Blakes, the nation's leading scorer, scored 26 points, but she was 7 of 26 from the field and missed all five of her three-point attempts.

Hidalgo also picked a fine time for one of the best performances of her career. The nation's steal leader had 10 steals as part of a triple-double (31 points, 11 rebounds, 10 steals, seven assists) and came within three assists of a rare quadruple-double.

To Notre Dame to have a chance vs. UConn, another big performance by Hidalgo and another standout defensive performance for the Irish are both needed.

Even that may well not be enough with how good the Huskies have been defensively themselves. They held North Carolina to only 18.2% (4 of 22) from three and 28.3% (17 of 60) overall from the field and forced 24 turnovers, with Sarah Strong tallying five steals as part of an excellent all-around game (21 points, 10 rebounds, five steals, two blocks, two assists).

It is possible that Hidalgo can help Notre Dame keep things respectable and relatively in range throughout, but with how much that has to happen for that to occur, yet another comfortable win is the likely outcome here.

Notre Dame vs. UConn Picks

Notre Dame +28 (-115 at Lucky Rebel)

While UConn should not run into any serious stress against Notre Dame, I do think the Irish can cover this supersized spread.

The Huskies did not cover against the Tar Heels because they didn't shoot all that well (20% from three on 20 attempts and 40% overall from the field), but the result was not in any doubt after a 17-0 run that spanned the final 1:43 of the second quarter and the first five and a half minutes of the third quarter.

Notre Dame brings more to the table offensively vs. UConn than North Carolina did, so I don't see that significant of a drought happening for the Irish or them being held to fewer than 50 points.

The Huskies should shoot better against the Irish than they did against the Tar Heels, but I don't see UConn shooting Notre Dame so far out of sight that this spread is covered. And for what it's worth, an 82-59 scoreline is the projection in Bart Torvik's projections for Sunday's women's Elite Eight games.

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