After Monday's tough loss to No. 13 Arizona on college basketball's opening night, No. 3 Florida looks to bounce back on Thursday against North Florida. After falling 93–87 to the Wildcats, the Gators should not only be pissed off, they should be out for blood. The North Florida Ospreys should fear for their lives. This is the ultimate get-right spot for Florida, coming off a brutal loss and looking to secure their first win of the season.
Opening Lines Leans
The line opened at -36.5 in favor of the reigning national champions. I do not think this number is high enough. Other books are still slowly posting Thursday's lines, but I will either be on this spread or possibly the Gators' team total. They are easily going to score 100 against the Ospreys, I just want a good price on them to do it.
For those hesitant about backing such a large spread, I believe taking elite teams to cover massive numbers early in the season is the right move. Look at Kansas on Monday night; they blew the doors off Green Bay and cruised past a 30-point spread. Do books really know how to price these early mismatches against bottom-100 teams? I lean no. Sure, Purdue and Kentucky failed to cover on Tuesday, but I still prefer backing a powerhouse like Florida in this spot rather than taking the points with North Florida just because the number looks big.
Plus, Florida does not play Florida State until next Tuesday in Gainesville, so this is not a look-ahead spot. Going from scoring 87 points in Las Vegas against a top-15 team to facing a bottom-10 team at home is exactly what the Gators need before their in-state rivalry game. This is a matchup they should win by 40 or more. Bart Torvik projects Florida to win 102–61.
Another reason I lean toward the team total is the pace of play. Florida is one of the fastest teams in the country, ranking inside the top 35 in tempo. Haslametrics has North Florida playing at a similar pace, ranked 29th, while Florida sits at 26th.
How to Play This Matchup
If you want to attack the opening number, I fully endorse the -36.5 and would play it up to -39.5. As for the team total, I would take it up to 100. If it opens higher than that, take the spread instead. The Gators play elite defense and should have no issue holding the seventh-worst team in the country under 60 points while running at hyper speed.
Florida should come out angry and in attack mode after Monday's loss. This is the perfect get-right spot before hosting Florida State. With their tempo, talent, and motivation, the Gators should roll from start to finish. I am backing Florida -36.5 and will look to add their team total up to 100. Expect a statement win in Gainesville.
Editor's Note: The Florida Gators' team total is currently set at 105.5. Take the spread, if the Gators score 105 or more, they will cover whatever the spread is listed at.
