The write-ups stay cursed. Fade the stank!
New Mexico vs Nevada Betting Odds
Picks in this piece are courtesy of Bovada. At Bovada, you can get great odds on all of the top college basketball matchups every day.
Write Up Transparency
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Let’s check in on how I have been doing betting on college hoops since joining Betting News.
- 12-14-2 (42%) * Write-ups are ICE COLD*
(As of February 12, 2024)
New Mexico: (+2.5) (-110)
Nevada: (-2.5) (-110)
Over: 155 (-110)
Under: 155 (-110)
New Mexico: +130
New Mexico vs Nevada Prediction
We have ourselves a Mountain West showdown in Reno as the Nevada Wolf Pack host the New Mexico Lobos. Both teams come into this game feeling the complete opposite; New Mexico is coming off a 3-point loss to UNLV as 12-point favorites. On the other hand, Nevada has been on a tear, winning back-to-back games against top-25 opponents for the first time in program history. Taking down at the time #22 Utah State and #24 San Diego State on Friday.
Can Nevada keep their 3 game winning streak alive tonight against one of the conference’s best teams? We shall see. In the meantime, here is what I brewed up.
I have to fade Nevada after watching them sneak past the Aztecs on Friday. I would say this even if the Wolf Pack faithful did not storm the court in their 70-66 overtime victory over the Aztecs. The Pack choked at the line, shooting 59.4%. If Nevada could have made their free throws when it counted at the end of the game, it would have never gone into overtime.
I will be happily riding with the more consistent team. The Lobos have a significant edge in consistency, according to Haslametrics. On the road during conference play this season, the Lobos have been playing some incredible ball. In their five conference road games, they are first in adjusted defensive efficiency, eFG% offense, and turnover percentage defense.
Offensively, the Lobos’ have been shooting the ball very well from inside and around the perimeter. They get after their second chance opportunities, 3rd best offensive rebounding team in the conference.
Nevada is a solid team overall, but at home, in conference play, they struggle to get to the glass and do not make their free throws. Shocking for a team that is 7th in the country in free throw rate is only shooting 66.5% from the line in the conference. Haslametrics is giving Nevada a significant away/home court advantage, but I saw firsthand that it is more fragile than the data suggests.
Fade the storm.
Prediction: New Mexico Wins
Where to find more advanced analytics
If you are looking for advanced analytic websites for college basketball Bart Torvik and Haslametrics are my favorite two. They are free and very informative. Ken Pom is another great resource, but sadly you have to pay.
Remember, these are mostly used as a crutch. Do not let these be the end all be all to making wagers. They are not always right with their predictions. Use your plums, trust your gut, and remember you cannot win them all. If you have any questions my socials are below I am always free to discuss anything college hoops. Especially, if it is over a game that will have under 23 people in attendance.
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