Football is officially over so all sports lovers have turned their heads towards College Hoops! Good thing we've been paying attention all season long, but lets' dive in to our best bets for Monday's NCAA Basketball betting board.
Tonight we back the Wolfpack at home against a team they've already beaten. Nevada beat Fresno State on the road about a month ago, however they failed to cover. Nevada won by 11, 77-66, but did not cover the 12.5 point spread and the game stayed under the total of 148. Now we are back in Reno, and the Wolfpack are 15 point favorites with a total six points lower.
The Bulldogs are one of the fastest teams in the country, but it doesn't translate to lots of points. They rank north of 320 in eFG% on both sides of the ball, while also ranking north of 280 in Rebounding on offense and defense as well. Fresno is just 1-10 on the road this year, ranking 297th offensively and 200th defensively but somehow running up and down the floor as a Top 5 paced team in the country. Although Nevada likes to slow things down, if they get extra possessions, they will take advantage.
The Wolfpack are coming off two great wins, they are Top 55 in eFG% and Top 35 in FT Rate offense. They shoot over 36.5% from deep and despite playing a slower style, they will put the ball in the bucket plenty. The spread might seems like a lot, but the Wolfpack limits offensive rebounds, ranking 16th in OR Rate defensively and are Top 85 in forcing turnovers as well. Nevada isn't looking ahead at all, and I see them handling business and getting an easy home win in Mountain West play tonight.
Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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