NC State vs #2 Duke: Odds, Predictions & Key Insights | January 27, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Published: Mon Jan 27, 2025, 1:03 pm ET
Read Time: 4 minutes
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The Duke Blue Devils return to Cameron Indoor Stadium tonight to face the struggling NC State Wolfpack in an in-state rivalry matchup. Duke has been dominant at home this season, ranking among the nation's best in both offensive and defensive metrics. Meanwhile, NC State has faltered on the road, with one of the worst defenses in the country and no wins since early January. With Duke eyeing a rivalry showdown against UNC later this week, this game sets up as a perfect tune-up for the Blue Devils.
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Last Month in CBB: 41-51 (-16.79 Units)
Last Week in CBB: 11-11 (-1.39 Units)
NC State vs #2 Duke Odds
Can Duke cover the 21-point spread tonight against NC State?
Odds are courtesy of BetOnline, a longtime fixture among the top online sports betting sites. Check out our BetOnline sportsbook review, then bag a big bonus (100% if your first deposit is with Bitcoin, Ethereum, or another cryptocurrency) to bet on College Basketball games.
Spread
NC State: +21 (-115)
Duke: -21 (-105)
Total
Over: 133.5 (-105)
Under: 133.5 (-115)
NC State vs #2 Duke Best Bet
Death. Taxes. Bet Duke at home.
The Blue Devils have been exceptional at home this season, ranked as the 100th-best home team per Haslametrics—which feels low considering they rank ninth in offense and second in defense at home according to Bart Torvik's rankings. Most impressively, Duke boasts the fifth-best effective field goal percentage (eFG%) defense and the fourth-best two-point defense at home this season.
Duke is coming off a narrow road win over Wake Forest on Saturday, while NC State has not won since January 8th against Notre Dame. Tonight's game marks the second of Duke's three-game stretch against in-state rivals, with the Tar Heels looming on Saturday. However, with no travel issues and plenty of time before that showdown, Duke should be fully focused on taking care of business tonight. After failing to cover as 11-point favorites against Wake Forest, this game against the Wolfpack sets up as a tune-up opportunity.
In four true road games this season, NC State's defense has been one of the worst in the country. They rank third-worst in three-point defense, fifth-worst in eFG% defense, 28th-worst in adjusted defensive efficiency, and 48th-worst in two-point defense. These numbers remain consistently poor in neutral site games as well, highlighting their defensive struggles.
Despite the rivalry factor, Duke is easily the toughest opponent NC State has faced all season. In four games against top-50 teams, the Wolfpack have lost by double digits in all but one, a 63-59 loss to Texas on December 4th. Even that result looks less impressive now, as Texas only recently found its footing. This will be NC State's first game against a top-50 opponent since December 14th.
With the better team in a favorable spot and plenty of rest before their next game, I feel confident backing Duke to cover the 21-point spread tonight.
Best Bet: Duke (-21) on BetOnline
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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