NC State vs. SMU Picks and Predictions: ACC Hoops
Written by: Nate Hornung
Last Update: Tue Feb 03, 2026, 4:22 pm ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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More ACC action on this CBB Super Tuesday as Will Wade and his disappointing NC State Wolfpack head to Dallas to take on the SMU Mustangs. Now, despite being 16-6 on the year, the Wolfpack have made some strides in conference play, posting a 7-2 record sitting just below Duke, Clemson, and Virginia for the top spot in the ACC. But admittedly, besides their win over the Tigers, they haven't played the strongest teams yet. Will that change tonight as they face SMU who is very tough to beat on their own floor? Let's get into our favorite picks and find out.
Best Bet: NC State/SMU Over 160.5 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
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NC State Wolfpack vs. SMU Mustangs NCAA Basketball Insights
Darrion Williams and NC State are on the road looking for their fifth straight win
SMU is 15-6 overall and just 4-4 in ACC play. They have been involved in some very tight games at Moody Coliseum, beating Florida State by three, losing to Virginia by four and then beating Virginia Tech by one on a half court buzzer beater. Now, back in front of their own fans after melting down in the second half against Louisville at the KFC Yum! Center, do they have it in them to defend their home court?
NC State has won four straight. I've got to give them their flowers for that. However, they have lost three of their four games against ranked teams this season, two of which were at home. Yes, they have a big road win over No. 18 Clemson in overtime, but having won nine of their last 11 since that loss at home to Kansas, are they flying too close to the sun? Is this the perfect spot for the Ponies to knock them down a peg and send them spiraling the back half of the season?
Matchup Information – NC State vs. SMU – February 3
- Venue & Location: Moody Coliseum (Dallas, TX)
- Date: Tuesday, February 3, 2026
- Kick Off: 9:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPN2
NC State vs. SMU Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of February 3, 2026 at 2:33 p.m. eastern. Sign up today with and get a $1,250 deposit bonus, as well as 50 slot spins immediately. Lucky Rebel Sportsbook offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
| Team | Spread | Moneyline | Over/Under |
|---|---|---|---|
| NC State | -3.5 (-108) | -121 | Over 160.5 (-110) |
| SMU | +1.5 (-112) | +100 | Under 160.5 (-110) |
NC State vs. SMU NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions
BJ Edwards and SMU host the NC State Wolfpack tonight at Moody Coliseum
NC State vs. SMU Prediction: SMU Wins Outright, Over 160.5
Best Bet: NC State/SMU Over 160.5 (-110) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Get ready for some tempo, because both teams love to run. The Wolfpack are No. 92 in terms of pace, and stay in the top 100 when away from home. SMU is just as fast, ranking No. 108 overall, but jumping up to No. 82 when at home. There should be plenty of trips up and down the floor for both teams to work their efficient offenses.
Plus, both teams are simply better on that side of the basketball. The Ponies rank top 20 in adjusted offensive efficiency and top 40 in eFG%, but drop out of the top 100 on the defensive side of the ball. NC State is the same way. On the road, they actually rank second in the nation in offensive efficiency and are top 10 in eFG%, but are north of 200 in eFG% defensively. Not great when facing a team that zooms up and down the floor.
The Wolfpack are also a team that can't keep their hands to themselves, ranking No. 308 in FT Rate defense, not to mention they are north of 300 in opponent 3P% as well, struggling to defend the perimeter. While SMU doesn't shoot too many threes, they knock them down when they do, and also don't do a great job of protecting the glass, which could lead to easy Wolfpack putbacks.
I do think SMU finds a way to win this game at home, but more of my faith can be found in both teams to put the ball in the hoop.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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