NC State vs. #24 Louisville Picks and Predictions: ACC Hoops
Written by: Nate Hornung
Published: Mon Feb 09, 2026, 11:06 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
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Big Monday is back and we've got a couple of huge matchups in the ACC and Big 12 tonight. Of course the focus will be on the late night game at Allen Fieldhouse between the top ranked Arizona Wildcats and the Kansas Jayhawks, but we've got to show love for the matchup at the KFC Yum! Center as well. Let's take a look at our CBB expert's favorite picks as the NC State Wolfpack take on the No. 24 Louisville Cardinals.
Best Bet: Louisville ML/Over 161.5 (+170) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
Go check out what else I've got on my daily card, and view the latest odds at the best online sportsbooks.
NC State Wolfpack vs. #24 Louisville Cardinals NCAA Basketball Insights
Darrion Williams and NC State bring their six game winning streak into the KFC Yum! Center tonight
Despite not being ranked, the Wolfpack sit near the top of the ACC. Duke and Clemson are tied for first with a 10-1 conference record, but Virginia and NC State are right behind them at 9-2. This is the first and only meeting between the two schools this season, and each will be looking to add a win to their record. Can the Wolfpack find a way to pull off this upset on the road?
It's no secret that Louisville is much better in their own gym, specifically shooting the basketball. NC State has won six straight games while the Cardinals have won three in a row and five of their last six overall. Do they have it in them to handle business at home tonight?
Matchup Information – NC State vs. Louisville – February 9
- Venue & Location: KFC Yum! Center (Louisville, KY)
- Date: Monday, February 9, 2026
- Kick Off: 7:00 p.m. Eastern
- Broadcast: ESPN
NC State vs. Louisville Betting Odds
Odds are courtesy of Lucky Rebel, one of our favorite online sportsbooks, as of February 9, 2026 at 10:47 a.m. eastern. Sign up today with and get a $1,250 deposit bonus, as well as 50 slot spins immediately. Lucky Rebel Sportsbook offers a wide variety of unique markets across nearly every sport imaginable.
Spread
- NC State +6.5 (-115)
- Louisville -6.5 (-105)
Moneyline
- NC State +225
- Louisville -285
Total
- Over 161.5 (-111)
- Under 161.5 (-109)
The Cardinals are just 7-4 in ACC play so far this year and are 17-6 overall, slightly behind NC State who is 18-6 at the moment. Someone has to lose tonight, and even though the Wolfpack have been very good on the road, I don't think they can muster up another tough win away from home.
NC State vs. #24 Louisville NCAA Basketball Picks and Predictions
Mikel Brown Jr. is a projected lottery pick in next year's NBA Draft
NC State vs. Louisville Prediction: Louisville Wins and Covers, Over 161.5
Best Bet: Louisville ML/Over 161.5 (+170) Lucky Rebel Sportsbook
We have two very fast teams, so expect plenty of possessions. The Cardinals are top 55 in the nation in pace, jumping into the top 30 on their home floor. NC State is also in the top 90 in tempo and don't drop off too much in away and neutral contests. They are fine with running, and will be happy to push the pace. However their defense worries me.
The Cardinals shoot more threes than anyone in the country, and they knock them down at a 35.6% clip in their own gym. Do the Wolfpack have the perimeter defense to stop them? Short answer, no. Let me show you how far their defense drops off when outside of Raleigh.
Overall, NC State is No. 182 in opponent 3P%, but are bottom 25 in 3P Rate defense, giving up threes on nearly 46% of possessions. In 11 games away from home, they drop to No. 331 in opponent 3P%, letting them shoot over 38% from deep. It's a recipe for disaster if the Cardinals are knocking down their shots. The Wolfpack are also north of 300 in FT Rate defense, so if Louisville decides to attack the rim, they should get plenty of foul calls.
Offensively for NC State, they also take plenty of threes and shoot over 44% from deep in those 11 contests away from home. The Cardinals are in the bottom half of the country in opponent 3P% at home, and bottom 100 in 3P Rate. So we should see plenty of possessions, tons of threes, and several of them going in the hoop as we back the Cardinals to get the job done while pushing this total over.
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Nate has been a recreational sports bettor for about 5 years. In that time, he has grown to love the pursuit of winners and sticking it to The Man. Nate loves data and uses his understanding of numbers to help him be a more profitable sports gambler, however he will be the first to tell you this game is about more than just stats.
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