Sunday night hoops takes center stage while the NFL takes a breather. San Francisco welcomes Morgan State in a matchup that sets up as a true contrast in styles and talent. The number is large, the metrics are loud, and the spot matters. Let us break down why this game could get out of hand in a hurry.
Morgan State vs. San Francisco: Odds & Insights | December 21, 2025
Written by: Colby Marchio
Last Update: Sun Dec 21, 2025, 10:34 am ET
Read Time: 5 minutes
ncaab
FINAL
Morgan State Bears
64
San Francisco Dons
94
Write Up Transparency
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Last 7 Days: 3-9 (-8.2 Units)
Last 30 Days: 42-30 (+11.08 Units)
Awful week. Fading may be the move.
Memphis vs. Mississippi State Odds
Will the Dons be able to cover the 25.5-point spread?
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Spread
Morgan State: +27.0 (-114)
San Francisco: -27.0 (-106)
Total
Over: 148.5 (-110)
Under: 148.5 (-110)
Moneyline
Morgan State: N/A
San Francisco: N/A
Morgan State vs. San Francisco Best Bet
A little Sunday evening college basketball for those looking for a break from the NFL slate. This evening, the San Francisco Dons host the Morgan State Bears. Unlike the Chicago Bears, Morgan State has struggled all season long, only recently securing their first win of the season against a Division I opponent. Meanwhile, the Dons have had some shaky moments for a team that is typically quite solid. They own notable losses to Saint Louis, Nevada, and Memphis, but also dropped a game to North Alabama, a team outside the top 200. The question tonight is whether San Francisco can cover the 25.5 point spread before Christmas break, or if the Bears can keep this one close. Let us get into it.
I have been waiting to fade Morgan State against a legitimate team ever since they lost by 43 to DePaul. I was in attendance for that game, and it was either the biggest fluke mankind has ever seen from a basketball team, or Morgan State is the worst team in America. With the Bears ranked fourth worst on Bart Torvik, I am leaning with the numbers. I grabbed the Dons at -25.5 last night, and I would take this up to -30. This should be a blood bath.
Down Bad Bears
So far this season, the Bears own one of the worst offenses and arguably the worst defense in college basketball. Offensively, they rank bottom 100 in eFG%, turnover percentage, three point percentage, two point percentage, and block percentage. On the defensive end, they sit bottom 20 in eFG% defense, free throw rate defense, and two point defense. This is all while playing the 32nd easiest schedule in the country. Meanwhile, San Francisco has faced the 107th toughest schedule. Beyond strength of schedule, Haslametrics gives the Dons significant advantages in nearly every category, including all-play percentage, average season rank, and away/home court edge.
San Francisco is likely to force this into a slower paced game, as they rank bottom 75 in pace of play. That slower tempo does not concern me when it comes to covering a 25.5-point spread. The Dons are 82nd in adjusted offensive efficiency and boast a very solid offensive unit. This is a team that shoots threes at a high rate and still converts over 36% of the time. San Francisco moves the ball as well as almost anyone in the country, ranking 71st in assist rate. They will patiently work the ball until they find the right shot on nearly every possession against a Bears team they should shut down defensively. The Dons rank 65th in eFG% defense, excelling at protecting the interior, while also sitting top 150 in free throw rate defense and perimeter defense.
This will be the weakest opponent San Francisco has faced all season. Their previous game against Loyola Chicago represented the lowest level of competition to this point, and they won that matchup by 14 on Wednesday. On the other side, the Dons will be the second best team Morgan State has faced, with Cal being their highest ranked opponent to date. With San Francisco having nothing ahead of them other than a week long break, I expect them to come out focused and in control from start to finish, closing the first half of the season on a high note as they gear up for conference play next Sunday.
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Former D1 (club) baseball player, Colby has been betting since his college days at DePaul, where he had to endure the worst collegiate basketball the Big East has ever seen. He is an advanced analytics nerd and has never seen an underdog he has not liked. Hot. Corn. Bull. It does not matter the dog he loves them all.
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