My favorite fade of the year has been fading the living daylights out of the Morgan State Bears. After seeing them with my own two peepers on December ninth at Wintrust Arena, when they were demolished by my DePaul Blue Demons, this is easily one of the worst teams I have ever watched in my entire career. They took 90% of the first half to make their first field goal of the game, as every point before that came from the charity stripe.
Living on Cloud 9
Now, the Bears have been playing some decent basketball as of late. They took down Delaware State on the road 80 to 79 as 3.5-point underdogs and followed that up this past Saturday by beating Howard 78 to 77 on a game winning layup as 14.5-point road underdogs.
This is still the same team that owns the 30th worst offense and fifth worst defense in the country. Away from home, those numbers get even uglier, as they drop to the fourth worst offense and second worst defense. Overall, they sit bottom 15 in eFG% offense, free throw rate defense, two point offense, and two point defense. Simply put, they are abysmal.
Letdown City, USA
This sets up as a classic letdown spot for the Bears, which is why I am backing Norfolk State -10 in this matchup. The Spartans own one of the best offenses in the Mid-Eastern Atlantic Conference. They rank top two in adjusted offensive efficiency, eFG%, free throw rate, two-point percentage, free throw percentage, and block percentage. Defensively, they are more middle of the pack, but they do a solid job defending the perimeter and forcing turnovers.
At home this season, the Spartans rank 159th in away home court metrics per Haslametrics. Meanwhile, the Bears rank 39th worst in that same category. Haslametrics also gives Norfolk State clear advantages in consistency and all play percentage.
The pace of play should be fairly fast. Morgan State ranks 74th in tempo, while Norfolk State sits 202nd. However, in four home games this season, the Spartans tempo jumps to 112th. They are willing to run when needed, and with how fast the Bears want to play, Norfolk State should be able to run up the score with ease against this horrific defense.
With this game falling early in the week, Norfolk State should not be looking ahead to Saturday when they travel to take on Howard. Morgan State, on the other hand, is in the middle of a long road trip. I do not acknowledge their game against Virginia Lynchburg, a non-division one matchup, on January 20th. For me, this road stretch started at Delaware State, continues tonight, and wraps up Saturday against Coppin State. After two surprising performances, this feels like the spot where the Bears finally come back down to earth.
